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Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 3.0%

Wage growth cools The employment cost index is seen at the Fed as the highest-quality measure of compensation growth Wages + salaries for private-sector workers ex-incentive paid occupations was +1.1% in Q1 The Y/Y rate fell to 3.6% (vs 3.8% in Q4 and 4.2% last year)

Real consumer spending +0.7% in March -- a big jump -- led by a spike in spending on durable goods. Consumers are buying, ahead of tariff-driven price increases.

New consumer spending data: huge jump in March (+0.7%), while January was weakest in 5 months (-0.4%). Intra-Q pattern of Q1 spending means Q1 ended on stronger consumer spending than visible in GDP Q1 report. March jump driven by pre-tariff spending on durable goods.

U.S. employers added 177,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent. Data: bls.gov/news.release/e… Full coverage: nytimes.com/live/2025/05/0…

Strong jobs report. Employment gains led by health care, real estate, transportation/warehousing. Sustained job losses in federal government but also in tech. Manufacturing also stalled.

High-wage manufacturing employment is sputtering, down 1.5% year-over-year, after rebounding post-pandemic. Lower-wage manufacturing industries are now holding steady.

Industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants added jobs in April. Job growth in these industries has been almost as high as in other industries over the past quarter. Immigration changes may be less of a drag on job growth than it looked like a couple months ago.

Despite anecdotes of temporary layoffs due to tariff uncertainty, temporary layoffs remained in normal range in April. (Important to seasonally adjust this one since temporary layoffs have a big winter spike and a smaller summer spike.)

Tech jobs are struggling. Year-over-year employment: -2.2% in tech manufacturing (NAICS 334) -1.8% in telecom & online publishing (NAICS 517, 518, 519) -0.4% in tech services (NAICS 5415)

Today's job number did in fact show DOGE's fingerprints. And it's not in the federal workforce being down ~26,000 jobs since January. It's that federal workers now have a lower teleworking rate than the private sector. It's a pretty dramatic shift. /1

Chinese officials have stopped publishing hundreds of data points once used by researchers and investors, according to a WSJ analysis wsj.com/world/china/ch…

I have a few replies to this. Using a chained deflator is not "sleight of hand". In fact, it's now the preferred approach of EPI and Census. You can see EPI's newest wage graph looks pretty similar to ours now.

🆕 The goods and services trade deficit was $140.5 billion in March, up $17.3 billion from $123.2 billion in February, revised. census.gov/foreign-trade/… #InternationalTrade #CensusEconData BEA News

I wanna call out something that was clear in both pre-election polls and the precinct data: the education divide did NOT widen in 2024. Harris lost equal ground with noncollege AND college-ed voters. And in fact lost MORE with college-ed whites than noncollege whites.

Assuming that the US raised the "reciprocal" tariff rate on the EU from 10% to 50%, what would be the economic effect? The 1st table takes current tariffs & illustratively raises the EU reciprocal rate to 50% total. For comparison, the 2nd shows w/o the extra EU tariff. 1/7