Fabian Kuske (@fabiankuske1) 's Twitter Profile
Fabian Kuske

@fabiankuske1

ID: 1091690145789677570

calendar_today02-02-2019 13:29:48

373 Tweet

306 Followers

3,3K Following

Mehrdad Farajtabar (@mfarajtabar) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🧵 1/8 The Illusion of Thinking: Are reasoning models like o1/o3, DeepSeek-R1, and Claude 3.7 Sonnet really "thinking"? 🤔 Or are they just throwing more compute towards pattern matching? The new Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) show promising gains on math and coding benchmarks,

🧵 1/8 The Illusion of Thinking: Are reasoning models like o1/o3, DeepSeek-R1, and Claude 3.7 Sonnet really "thinking"? 🤔 Or are they just throwing more compute towards pattern matching?

The new Large Reasoning Models (LRMs) show promising gains on math and coding benchmarks,
Foreign Affairs (@foreignaffairs) 's Twitter Profile Photo

“The continuation of Trump’s current foreign policy would weaken the United States and accelerate the erosion of the international order that since World War II has served so many countries well—most of all, the United States.” fam.ag/4kGHx93

Arvind Narayanan (@random_walker) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Most academic writing is *optimized* to be bad — good writing is all about making ideas as simple as possible but career incentives push authors to make their ideas seem more profound and complicated than they are.

Neil Hauer (@neilphauer) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The new Israel-Iran war carries major risks for the South Caucasus. Iran's threats of military intervention against Azerbaijan if the latter (again) invades Armenia have been perhaps the greatest single deterrent to renewed war.

Tobias Schneider (@tobiaschneider) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The Israeli gov, for all its ills, did not, in fact, do anything to provoke the undying hostility of an ideologically obsessed, domestically unpopular military-clerical elite of a country hundreds of kilometers and three borders away, which could (and used to) just act normal.

Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One sometimes hears, "economists said tariffs would cause a recession but they haven't therefore economic models are wrong". 4 points: 1. Economic models, including this from Yale Budget Lab, generally have said growth down 0.5 to 1.0pp. By itself not enough for a recession.

Zongyuan Zoe Liu (@zongyuanzoeliu) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I am happy that the paperback of "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is now available! Get a copy and chat with me, or to impress your in-laws! 😊 a.co/d/al0rW31

I am happy that the paperback of "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is now available! Get a copy and chat with me, or to impress your in-laws! 😊 a.co/d/al0rW31
Kyle Chan (@kyleichan) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Exciting personal news: I've just signed a book contract with Princeton University Press. My book will be about China's industrial policy, from EVs and batteries to AI and robotics. It's aimed at both general readers and researchers, in the style of my High Capacity newsletter.

Gabriel Felbermayr (@gfelbermayr) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Ein paar Bemerkungen zum so genannten EU-US Zolldeal: (1/10) Ein trauriger Tag für den Freihandel: 15% Zoll auf EU-Waren in den USA ist besser als 20 oder 30%, keine Frage. Aber der „Deal“ ist teuer erkauft. Vielleicht zu teuer.

Collin Koh 🇸🇬🇺🇦 (@collinslkoh) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Perhaps the authors could have done greater justice to decent research by asking why many Asian countries, including those in Southeast Asia, continue to keep the U.S. military presence anchored in the region?

Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Germany's in trouble. Its manufacturing faces a structural shock for which the fix is a weaker Euro and structural reforms. But its intellectual elite think the fix is fiscal stimulus & more debt, a policy that's only led to more debt - not growth - in the rest of the Euro zone.

Germany's in trouble. Its manufacturing faces a structural shock for which the fix is a weaker Euro and structural reforms. But its intellectual elite think the fix is fiscal stimulus & more debt, a policy that's only led to more debt - not growth - in the rest of the Euro zone.
Janis Kluge (@jakluge) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Why the current negotiation process is so confusing : There is a lot of "strategic communication" by Europeans. Most of their optimistic statements aren't true beliefs, but meant to influence Trump. Europeans hype up expectations to create a reality in which Putin disappoints.

Kaiser Kuo (@kaiserkuo) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Yeah, you can tell I've spent my morning reading Foreign Affairs. Ahead of Dan Wang 's book "Breakneck" coming out later this week I think — I'm interviewing him for the Sinica Podcast tomorrow morning — do read this excellent piece co-authored with Arthur Kroeber. Gift link below.

Yeah, you can tell I've spent my morning reading <a href="/ForeignAffairs/">Foreign Affairs</a>. Ahead of <a href="/danwwang/">Dan Wang</a> 's book "Breakneck" coming out later this week I think — I'm interviewing him for the <a href="/SinicaPodcast/">Sinica Podcast</a> tomorrow morning — do read this excellent piece co-authored with <a href="/arkroeber/">Arthur Kroeber</a>. Gift link below.
Fabian Wintersberger (@f_wintersberger) 's Twitter Profile Photo

To those who care: Milei hasn't stopped inflation, if you take M2 as an indicator for money supply. Since he took office, the money supply has increased at roughly the same rate than before. You may ask why CPI is lower than? The answer is that destroying regulations has led to

To those who care: Milei hasn't stopped inflation, if you take M2 as an indicator for money supply. Since he took office, the money supply has increased at roughly the same rate than before. 

You may ask why CPI is lower than? The answer is that destroying regulations has led to
Hanming Fang (@hanmingf) 's Twitter Profile Photo

My first book project is a co-edited volume with Marshall Meyer titled “The Arc of the Chinese Economy” that will be published by Cambridge University Press in November 2025! Chapters by leading experts:

My first book project is a co-edited volume with Marshall Meyer titled “The Arc of the Chinese Economy” that will be published by Cambridge University Press in November 2025!  Chapters by leading experts:
Jonathon P Sine (@jonathonpsine) 's Twitter Profile Photo

On Dan Wang's new book: Breakneck This essay assesses the book's big idea: China is an engineering state facing off against America, a lawyerly society. The book is well-informed and packed with wit. But I wanted more data. So I assembled some.🧵 cogitations.co/p/litigation-n…

François Valentin (@valen10francois) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Macron's coalition is at 13.5% in polls = 100 seats/577 It means: A) Macron would be nuts to go for another snap election B) He's probably going to have to build another minority government C) pressure to mount on him to resign What a disastrous 2nd term Jupiter is gone

Macron's coalition is at 13.5% in polls = 100 seats/577

It means:

A) Macron would be nuts to go for another snap election

B) He's probably going to have to build another minority government 

C) pressure to mount on him to resign

What a disastrous 2nd term

Jupiter is gone
Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz (@bundeskanzler) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Putin ist ein Kriegsverbrecher. Er ist vielleicht der schwerste Kriegsverbrecher unserer Zeit, den wir im großen Maßstab sehen. Wir müssen uns darüber im Klaren sein, wie man mit Kriegsverbrechern umgeht: Da ist Nachgiebigkeit fehl am Platz.