Key takeaways from Powell's presser: -Powell more or less declared the recalibration phase complete—they're now "well positioned to wait." -He blamed committee divide on the unusual tension in the dual mandate and validated both sides of the debate. -He made a surprisingly

*US NOV. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 64,000 M/M; EST. +50K *US OCT. NONFARM PAYROLLS FALL 105K M/M; EST. -25K *US OCT. RETAIL SALES UNCHANGED M/M; EST. +0.1%

🚨 RECORD SPEC BRENT CRUDE SHORT Managed Money short positions in ICE Brent crude contracts rose more than 40 million barrels over the past week through Tuesday to their current all-time high of 232 million barrels.

JPMorgan sees limited oil impact from Venezuela shift, upside depends on US role investinglive.com/commodities/jp…

*US DEC. NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 50K M/M; EST. +70K *US DEC. PRIVATE PAYROLLS RISE 37K M/M; EST. +75K *US DEC. TWO-MONTH PAYROLL NET REVISION SUBTRACTS 76,000 *US DEC. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% #Jobs

*US DEC. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US DEC. CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3%

*US NOV. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% *US NOV. PERSONAL SPENDING RISES 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.5%

JP Morgan trims D.R. Horton price target to $119 from previous $136.

Phenomenal crash in momentum today Worst day since the COVID reopening Very interesting analog given prevailing economic/market conditions $MTUM $SPY

Insane Q4 print from $GOOG. Revenue accelerating yet again to +18% (+16 last Q). Cloud+48% (What. The. F*ck?) 😳. Search +17% (it was supposedly dead, hahaha). Margins strong, EPS +31%, scaling well. ‘26 Capex guide $175-185bn = demand driven. Gemini app now 750m users. 👏👏👏

We can have bad days and scary headlines, that happens. But as we've been saying for years now, this is a broad-based rally that likely has a lot longer left to it. Nice one from Grant Hawkridge in his note today that shows various advance/decline lines making new highs.

The average Russell 1,000 software stock needed to gain more than 50% to get back to its average analyst price target coming into today. Here's a look at the names the farthest below their price targets:

S&P is flat over the past month, but the average stock moved 10.8% — a dispersion spread at the 99th percentile over 30 years. Crushed correlations (1m rCorr 8.9) driven by massive Growth-to-Value rotation, pod shop de-risking at 100th %ile gross leverage, and 0DTE/leveraged ETF

Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is 34%. Right now we're 1.5% below the all-time high.

*US JAN. CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US JAN. CORE CPI RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% #inflation

Fed minutes point to more cuts if there is inflation progress, but caution around disinflation being slower than expected Bloomberg

*US DEC. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.3%

New estimates from The Budget Lab including the possibility of 15% section 122 tariffs (which at the moment I believe only exist in tweet form). Everyone tip Ricco so he doesn’t have to pay taxes on it. Only a slight movement up in overall ETR which reflects the exemptions.

See the full convo here: youtu.be/vaFL41tcteo?si…

Andy Constan I think this is a generally accepted "good assumption," but I don't think that expectations, or thereby pricing of other structures, are *actually* built on that stitched-together probability density. The only people who stitch together the implied PDF are doing it for fun.