"Although they landed safely on a hill, the police later took them away to be investigated." globaltimes.cn/content/116512…

The UK must have a public vote on Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal on.ft.com/2MOnwOX

Beijing draws up plan to replace Carrie Lam as Hong Kong chief on.ft.com/32JSJty

It is with the utmost delight I share with you all this interview I conducted with Pangzai - a formidable drinker, a serial restaurateur, and yes, a king. 祝大哥身体健康～theconcourse.deadspin.com/an-interview-w… via @deadspin

“We’re waging war against the most destructive fires in our state’s history, and Trump is conducting a full-on assault against the antidote,” Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said. nyti.ms/2N6ovLE

Big thanks to Simon Rabinovitch for this The Economist piece that looks at our China Activity Proxy (and an alternative proxy from the SF Fed). A thread for those who’d like a little more detail.

Simon Rabinovitch The Economist For example, the formerly tight link between construction activity and cement output stops working. (See the chart.) Industrial value-added (and monthly IP) become eerily stable, but direct measures of output from industry don’t.

The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence more challenging than at the time of the first referendum in 2014. capitaleconomics.com/publications/u…

“Summer is almost over, winter is coming. We have no windows, let alone heating.” Across China, failing developers are halting construction on new housing complexes. Desperate buyers are moving in anyway. ow.ly/rVN150KrVo8

"An opposition victory looks to have become less likely and this will disappoint investors hoping for a return to orthodox economic policymaking and a more credible commitment to tackling Turkey’s inflation problem". The latest on Turkey's election here: shorturl.at/vwE28

Lots of chatter about the recent stabilisation in housing markets but affordability is still v stretched. Prices likely to fall further in most DMs.

Yup... More on that view in my latest note: capitaleconomics.com/blog/whatever-… And sign up for an online briefing this week with our Chief Asia Economist, Mark Williams: capitaleconomics.com/events/asia-dr…

The upside surprise to core inflation today has pushed interest swap rates up to their highest level since October. If sustained, fixed mortgage rates will start rising again.

Paul Dales and Neil Shearing deliver our verdict on the UK's April CPI report: shorturl.at/bsHUW #ukeconomy #recession

Harry Truman would’ve had little time for the equivocating around what’s happening in the economy, with key data pointing in differing directions. However, weird as this cycle is, the logic of policy tightening means we still think this ends in recession. rb.gy/j73fy

I have tendered my resignation as the global comms chief of AIIB. As a patriotic Canadian, this was my only course. The Bank is dominated by Communist Party members and also has one of the most toxic cultures imaginable. I don’t believe that my country’s interests are

Just ahead of June decisions from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, Neil Shearing discusses why central bankers are having to feel their way – and how this tightening cycle ends. Listen and subscribe to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics here: shorturl.at/gpqC3

It's a feature, not a bug. Despite the Chinese economy's imbalances, government stimulus measures to support growth invariably focus on boosting investment rather than consumption. Read why in this 2022 explainer by Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams: shorturl.at/rtNQ8

China's demographic crisis in a chart. Leaked official estimates project 2023 births at less than half those recorded just 7 years ago. If confirmed, that would sink UN projections updated only last year and point to the population shrinking even faster. shorturl.at/oqFG7

The UK government risks making a bad housing situation worse if reported plans for 99% mortgages become policy. Our UK Housing head Andrew Wishart in The Times on a dangerous proposal: rb.gy/44hvy8