For every Gillum or Ocasio-Cortez, however, I can point to scores of Ralph Northams, who used TV decisively in a major media market to win in a primary and general elex. Digital matters. But so does TV.

In 2010, two Sen. GOP incumbents - Murkowski & Bennett - lost primaries and Rep. Castle was defeated in DE SEN. primary. In 2018, no Dem Sen. was seriously contested in a primary & 2 Dem House incumbents lost. Please stop w/ the "revolution " in Dem party narratives.

To Rs who argue nothing's changed & say we're just "moving every race against them" for the hell of it...that's pretty much the exact same denial I heard from Dems in 2010.

The "LOL nothing matters everything is still horrible" savvy is easy and pleasing to say, but ... just stop. We don't know how this is going to turn out.

Candidates start with more positive ads, but concentrate (more negative) ads at end That’s right; negative information Is more impactful when it is recent, but fades more quickly; positive & personal info can anchor when presented 1st #SocSciResearch onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/po…

Just eyeballing our new voter file data from L2 Data in California, it seems like the electorate has moved about a pt to the Dems (or away from the GOP) in Orange County since the primary

Haven't seen anybody crunch these numbers yet, so here goes — Texas' 191 rural counties contributed 11% of the #txsen vote; non-rural counties made up the remaining 89%. In rural counties, @TedCruz defeated Beto O'Rourke 75% to 24%. In non-rural counties, O'Rourke beat Cruz 51-48.

For comparison: - 2016 (President): Vote was 12% rural counties/88% non-rural counties. Trump won rural counties 75%-23% and won non-rural counties 49%-46%. - 2014 (Governor): Vote was 13% rural cos./87% non-rural cos. Abbott won rural cos. 76%-23% and won non-rural cos. 57%-41%.

Lesson: be *very* wary of broad pronouncements that Rs will brazenly enshrine themselves in power for a decade absent a SCOTUS ruling to curtail partisan gerrymandering. The reality is much more complicated.

Rabbi Kelly Levy, of Congregation Beth Israel, talks about why it was important as a Jew to rally today

Pleasure meeting @Chas10Buttigieg at #TribFest19. It’s tough being a candidates spouse but he shoulders the burden with tremendous grace.

A Deep Dive Into the Top 60 House Races in 2020 politicalwire.com/2020/07/23/a-d… via Taegan Goddard

For all the olds out there like me, I covered the KY03 race for years. Dems always had this Louisville seat high on their target list but could never beat GOP Rep. Anne Northup. In ‘06, when that seat flipped early in the night to John Yarmuth, you knew it was a wave election

When looking at/sharing polls, I am once again asking you NOT to focus on the margin, but on vote SHARE. Being ahead by a certain % is not as important as how close a candidate is to 50% and the factors that could make getting to 50% easier/harder.

Mood. #txlege