'YES' on the 26th is not a prediction of good faith, but a calculation based on fear. Smart bets aren't placed on the DOJ's desire to disclose everything, but on its fear of the political firestorm that will hit next week if it releases nothing. This is a bet against the

Soooo, did you look at your Polymarket year in review? Not interested in your profits or losses - tell me your top categories you traded in. Write them down or post a screenshot in the comments. Pretty straightforward, my trades match what I post about.

The price of global events has fallen through the floor. The chance of a war ending is valued at nine-tenths of a cent. The odds of a leaders' meeting are at six-tenths. This is not a mistake - it's Polymarket . And it's screaming: December will be quiet. I'm just

One bet is heading for a loss, the other is in profit. What to do? Using “Precipitation in NYC in December?” as an example, I'm locking in a small loss on "4-5" and opening a more precise "3-4" position to hedge risks and come out ahead. x.com/daocryptopolya… As of

You know, you gotta stick to your strategy no matter how tough it gets. Cold, hard analysis, a confident bet based on that analysis, trusting your analysis, trusting your skills. That's what makes you a pro, a disciplined trader who doesn't give in to impulses, doesn't panic,

The handshake as a stress test: how long will Trump "test" Zelenskyy over the peace plan for Ukraine? polymarket.com/event/how-long… The only Trump-Zelenskyy handshake for which there is precise timing lasted 6 seconds. It occurred during their meeting at the White House on February

The end of the year is almost here! We've got just over a day left until the final outcomes for these 2025 events are settled. This is a chill chance to grab around 3% for your deposit in about 36 hours. polymarket.com/event/how-many… Just remember: A bigger bet doesn't mean bigger

Happy New Year! I'll summarize the outcomes of the Polymarket bets I placed that settled in 2025. · "Will NYC have between <3 inches of precipitation in December?" Betting "NO" earned me +40%. · "Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in December?" Betting

For the first time, a sitting leader of a sovereign state will stand trial in the United States. The publication of his mug shot today is an issue of not just law, but also political calculation. Nicolás Maduro is in U.S. custody (at the Metropolitan Detention Center,

Think Lionel Messi will retire after 2026? Think again. We break down the two simple things that will decide the legend's future, and age is just one of them. Lionel Messi isn't going to call it quits in 2026. It all boils down to how he's feeling physically and whether he's

This market is moving like crazy with no news. How do you trade pure, chaotic volatility? I've mapped out two clear strategies. I've already analyzed this market once and laid out all my arguments. x.com/daocryptopolya… This is straight-up like a NASCAR race, and there

Forget speculation - let's talk probability. The market prices a 16% chance of a 2026 Greenland takeover. One detailed strategy shows how to structure a trade to profit from the volatility, targeting a 130% return. The Trump administration has openly declared its desire to

Polymarket has entered into an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones. Polymarket will provide Dow Jones Media (The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily) with exclusive data feeds on prediction markets for real-world events (politics, finance, geopolitics) to

Politics is chaos, and chaos is opportunity. How I'm diversifying risk across three time horizons, playing on an idea that terrifies the world, and stand to make nearly 300% on it. I looked into it, analyzed, and decided to highlight for you an ambiguous event that could

The dollar is hitting record highs, and the streets of Tehran are filled with protesters. Iran is caught in the grip of economic collapse and political crisis, yet the regime holds three trump cards to cling to power. Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Mass protests:

The Forgotten Phenomenon: The spotlight is on the stars, but the key to victory may lie with a player barely mentioned before the final. Who is he? Today at the King Abdullah Sports City stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Final of the 2026 Spanish Super Cup between FC

What a incredible match! Kept me on the edge of my seat until the very last minute. I hate corner kicks, especially at the end! What can I say – the better team won. Thanks for the thrill! Out of 3 predictions, only one didn't come true. I thought it would be 3:1, but it

A key signal to markets: the Fed has postponed all major decisions until 2026. But the January pause is just the beginning. We break down 3 hidden factors in their new "data-dependent" mode and what It means for portfolio. The Fed is highly likely to leave the interest rate

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11 is my favorite number 1.Key cryptography 2.Genesis block 3.10000 btc pizza 4.P2P (cat & Satoshi) 5.9 pages whitepaper 6.Satoshi vanished 7.Left and Right (The right of citizens to own assets (contrary to Decree № 6102 of 1933, which prohibited private ownership of