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Infertility causes a deterioration of mental health and increases divorce, with no “protective” effects on earnings; yet willingness to pay for IVF without insurance is relatively low, from Sarah Bögl, Jasmin Moshfegh, Petra Persson, and Maria Polyakova nber.org/papers/w32445

Given that today's AI has a jagged frontier - it is really good at some very hard tasks, but fails at some very basic ones - why is there the assumption that AI would be good at everything all at once? Jagged "superhuman" performance seems like a likelier near-term than true AGI

7/ One key finding is the lack of perceived trade-offs: First, inflation is considered to be unambiguously bad & only very rarely a by-product of positive economic developments such as lower unemployment. People’s views are much more aligned with episodes of “stagflation.”

I'm a huge fan of Grant Sanderson and having his introductory linear algebra in written form is a great resource for students!

How costly are port disruptions? In this volatile environment, what are the returns to investment in infrastructure? How frequent do macroeconomic shocks need to be to warrant investment? It's all in our new working paper 1/5 #ports: nber.org/papers/w32503?…

שווה!!!!

#TelAviv LIVE: Tens of thousands are on the streets demanding that Netanyahu sticks to his word and end his double game with the Israel public. ▪️ Rallies across Israel come less than 24 hrs after Biden's tv address laying bare the latest draft for a hostage/ceasefire deal.

Medical cannabis availability in New York did not have negative effects on mental health for adults overall but reduced self-reported poor mental health days by 10 percent for individuals aged 65+, from Coleman Drake, Nagy, Matthew Eisenberg, and David Slusky nber.org/papers/w32514

New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP19127 Negative Control Falsification Tests for Instrumental Variable Designs Oren Danieli, Daniel Nevo, Itai Walk, Bar Weinstein & Dan Zeltzer Tel Aviv University ow.ly/VQPH50S8fg0 #CEPR_EH #CEPR_IO #CEPR_LE #CEPR_PE #econometrics

New paper: How can you tell if a transformer has the right world model? We trained a transformer to predict directions for NYC taxi rides. The model was good. It could find shortest paths between new points But had it built a map of NYC? We reconstructed its map and found this:

An interesting new paper that explores the world model underlying LLM

Chronic illness is a key contributor to income-mortality gradients. Gaps in chronic illness between high and low income start early in life with location as a key mediating factor, from Danesh, Kolstad, Spinnewijn, and Parker nber.org/papers/w32577

ChatGPT "delves"

New paper with students Barnard College on testing orthogonal thinking / abstract reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models using the fascinating yet frustratingly difficult The New York Times Connections game. #NLProc #LLMs #GPT4o #Claude3opus 🧵(1/n)

That's surprising! offering free round-trip rides + text reminders did not improve booster vaccination rates compared to text reminders alone.

ארגוני הסגל האקדמי הכריזו על סכסוך עבודה בעקבות האישור הטרומי של חוק ההשתקה שמפלגות הקואליציה העבירו אתמול. אני לא רואה איך אנחנו יכולים להמשיך ללמד ולחקור במצב בו יואב קיש מקבל סמכויות צנזורה ראשיות. זה פשוט בלתי אפשרי להמשיך ולעבוד כך

Super happy this work with M.Ribers has finally found a nice home. We are grateful for the constructive editorial process QME Public Editor. Can recommend! Complementarities between algorithmic and human decision-making: The case of antibiotic prescribing doi.org/10.1007/s11129… 1/5

Falsification tests are often too harsh and people can find problems even when their IV is exogenous. Come hear more in my #NBERSI labor studies talk tomorrow (Thursday) at 10:30 am.

Also on YouTube youtube.com/channel/UC79EL…

How would telehealth impact spending should def be part of any policy debate, but note that more access need not equal more spending (esp. in value-based settings) jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…