New work: Do transformers actually do Bayesian inference? We built “Bayesian wind tunnels” where the true posterior is known exactly. Result: transformers track Bayes with 10⁻³-bit precision. And we now know why. I: arxiv.org/abs/2512.22471 II: arxiv.org/abs/2512.22473 🧵

I wrote about the Set Piece Revolution in the Premier League, why I think it's still just getting started, and my worries that it will require significant reforms to roll back

MIT just published a paper that quietly explains why LLM reasoning hits a wall and how to push past it. The usual story is that models fail on hard problems because they lack scale, data, or intelligence. This paper argues something much more structural: models stop improving

Watching from afar this stuff is just wild. I have long held the belief that the prediction markets (lol even describing it as that) won't take off in the way people are expecting. Longer term that is. This market gives a glimpse into why. At Betfair we had the choice to offer

Here's a link to the paper: arxiv.org/abs/2602.09982 2/

Taleb's Probability Questions videos, arranged by topic. notes2tree.com/?shared=79rkpG…

I am releasing my Complete Football Analytics in Python course on YouTube free to watch! I created the course ~ 2 years ago and there is still a ton of great value in it, especially for learning the fundamentals of Python and football analytics. With the changes in AI coding,

We’re recruiting for a Data Engineer to join our Research team at Liverpool FC. In my (perhaps biased) view, it’s a great opportunity to join an excellent team, work at the forefront of sports analytics, and have a tangible impact. linkedin.com/posts/conorqui…

For a baseline soccer model in a top club league, which model do you prefer? Poisson Dixon-Coles Bivariate Poisson with covariance Diagonal-inflated Poisson Conway-Maxwell Other?

Hiraeth is a Welsh word describing a deep longing for a home you can’t return to The word has no direct English translation blending nostalgia grief and yearning into a single feeling It appears in Welsh literature and poetry for centuries tied to the experience of exile and

Matthew Benham Interview MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference 2026 youtu.be/n3HaQ3Wtclw?si… via YouTube

My new paper is now live on arXiv that covers single and simultaneous races with multiple outcomes. There are three major results. Utility-Invariant Support Selection and Eventwise Decoupling for Simultaneous Independent Multi-Outcome Bets arxiv.org/abs/2603.24064

the new Expecting Goals newsletter continues my studies of the set piece revolution in the Premier League Corner kicks and long throws have accounted for nearly 1 in 4 of PL goals scored this season How did this happen? There are two clear innovators -- Brentford and Arsenal

Liftoff. The Artemis II mission launched from NASA's Kennedy Space Center at 6:35pm ET (2235 UTC), propelling four astronauts on a journey around the Moon. Artemis II will pave the way for future Moon landings, as well as the next giant leap — astronauts on Mars.

Another example of a structural wagering theorem. I show under risk-constraint the active set (wagered outcomes) remains the same, but the wealth profile is distorted. Follow-up to Boyd et al (2016). Risk-Constrained Kelly for Mutually Exclusive Outcomes arxiv.org/abs/2604.11577

I cannot recommend this enough. Well done bois an outstanding piece detailing the demise of our national sport. Will Owen Robbie Owen

WHAT HAVE WE JUST WITNESSED? 🤯 Sabastian Sawe has just become the first person in history to run a sub two-hour marathon in race conditions. Yomif Kejelcha was also under two hours for second!

Excellent analysis of The D'Hondt Method which will be used for the first time in next weeks Senedd election. The D'Hondt Dividend: How Wales's New Electoral System Rewards Large Parties - Jac M. Larner jaclarner.github.io/jaclarner/blog…

The internet was a tremendous idea. It's been largely destroyed by big tech to the point where 80%+ of it is grifting, scamming, and bots talking to bots. Well done, lads. Great job...

That's my vote in. Plaid Cymru is the vote for Cymru.