Cyclicals have significantly outperformed defensive sectors=>Yields could rise further putting more pressure on rate sensitive equities.

China is the world's largest coal consumer (51% of total), Australia is the 2nd largest exporter (behind Indonesia). AUD re-pricing?

There could be much more upside for yields in the medium term. Lower bonds lower equities ahead. A gigantic pain trade.

Rising wage pressures imply lower profit margins.

US corporate leverage keeps rising. US high yield spreads have narrowed too much, not pricing balance sheet health deterioration.

Relative US/Japan monetary base momentum explains #USDJPY with a lead, current consolidation will not last long. 140 likely this year

Global Cyclicals relative performance suggest that EM equities will outperform DM & in particular US equities this year.

EU unemployment falling faster than in the US, implies that Bunds are extremely expensive vs Treasuries at current levels

Relative IP trends also suggest that European long end rates are too low vs. US treasuries. QE fully priced in at current levels of spreads

Surge in global #inflation surprises is a major warning for risky assets. Another headwind in the long list of under-priced risks.

Chinese companies are aggressively deleveraging. China credit creation = 80% of World's total. This is another warning for risky assets.

Eurozone inflation surprises at historical highs. A warning signal for equities in the past (average annualized expected returns: -19%)

Speculators have already significantly reduced their positioning on the "reflation" trade.

The last 12 months US high yield spreads narrowing cannot be justified by fundamentals.

US corp debt service ratio has significantly deteriorated despite little rise in prime lending rates. US small biz ICR is alarmingly weak

Thank you Real Vision. Such a fantastic platform to share views and reasoning in a perfect format. Rcube 22 min itw on current market views.

US banks keep tightening lending standards for CRE loans. The job market is usually impacted 2yrs later (88,98,05,2015)

US retail sector close from downside breakout, yield curve crashing, economic momentum weakening=>more relative weakness for consumer sector

The #vix miss-pricing, according to its fundamentals, is the largest ever...