If done over RVs and turnout is adjusted by voting history on a voter file matching, it shouldn't make anyone nervous. It's the most correlated variable you could have to current vote choice and evidence is that, once adjusted for turnout, there is minimal misreporting.

This is the crucial point that took me a while to realize. As a Bayesian I was resistant to "regularization is bad for casual inference" until it clicked that some innocent-looking priors may be quite informative about casual effects.

At the county level we're seeing a consistent 1.3pp shift against Dems; larger in more Democratic counties. Currently forecasting R+2-4pp shift in the popular vote versus 2020

Should have mentioned this is Philadelphia county only! Moving too quickly here. But the consistency of the uniform shift across the nation is really striking. Maybe a bit less shift in NC (reverse coattails from Robinson?)

End of night update: county-demographic models showing big uphill battle for Harris in PA, MI, WI. Patterns consistent w/~ 5pp underperformance with Hispanic voters and 2-3pp shift nationwide. First GOP popular vote win since '04 looking quite likely.

We need to contest this narrative very strongly. Dems didn't lose because of stimulus or industrial policy, they lost despite those things. The economy didn't improve in time and Harris didn't make a clean break with an unpopular incumbent.

I think we - including me - are going to be tearing down Democratic policy, trends, comms, etc. for months to figure out what happened but after sleeping on it here are ten thoughts (that might not be true): 1) Democratic failures in urban governance coming to roost

I cannot say this enough: - Early exits are not suitable for demographic analysis or comparisons. - AP/Votecast is still preliminary -- should be adjusted for final vote counts. - We don't have Catalist. Or Pew validated voters. It's just too early to have confident takes!

100% to everything here. The micro story as to the shift from 2020 may be economy+ approval, etc. but the reason Trump exists is much deeper, obviously.

Promise I'll stop posting about this soon. But two things true 1) attitudes about race and immigration best separate Trump vs HRC, Biden, & Harris voters, including voters of color. Economic attitudes & real wage changes don't 2) calling people racist/sexist etc is bad politics

Yeah people are too quick to forget the absolute mess that was the Dem position in state houses ca. 2014. Incredible rebuilding and gains since then.

“The issue is not that deliverism failed. It is that Democrats convinced themselves that they had delivered, without listening to the voters telling them they had not.”

Who knows what the future holds, but for now I think I'm calling it a day on Twitter. Find me talking about stats, elections, labor, etc @corymccartan.com on the other site!