Volatility Tale of the Tape....since 1990: $MOVE Average: 92.6 $MOVE Current: 128.7 $VIX Average: 19.27 $VIX Current: 19.02 Options market price for "Election event": Interest rates: 18bps SP 500: 2% convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl…

Knock, knock....it's MBS Opportunity !! The spread of MBS over UST is a function of: 1) Shape of Yield Curve (2s vs 10s) 2) Implied Vol ( $MOVE Index) May 2021 MBS @ +25bp (MOVE = 60, Curve = +150bp) May 2023 MBS @ +190bp (MOVE = 160, Curve = -85bp) Sep 2024 MBS @ +115bp

Election "break even" analysis... UST 10yr rate: 17bps; 1.33 points $MOVE now @ 136 SPX: 1.8% or 102 points $VIX now @ 20.3 Gold: 1.6% or $44 Let's hope it's a clear victory....either way Michael Green Jim Bianco Luke Gromen David Rosenberg Cem Karsan 🥐 Andy Constan

Options market forecasting - UPDATE: Bond: Implied = + /- 17bp; Actual = -16.8bp SPX: Implied = + /- 102pts; Actual = 120 pts Gold: Implied = + /- $44; Actual = -$81 MOVE prior = 130; now 117 VIX prior = 20.49; now 15.87 Good luck today. hb Michael Green

Introducing the NYSE-listed "Bond Bull" strategy; It is duration on steroids (43 years vs 16.6 for the UST 20+ year ETF). It's only asset is a 7-year expiry (March 2032) call option on the 10yr, K = 3.25%. Invest only 40% of the dollars to have a superior "modeled" profile.

The Walmart of Duration....more for less ! The new NYSE-listed "Bond Bull" has a duration of 2.5x the UST 30yr, and 6x the convexity... ...yet only a 15% dollar allocation matches the duration of the Bond Aggregate Index. What will you do with all those conserved $$ ?

The 2025 Stocking Stuffers Come this time every year, I publish a list of “Investments” that I think will do well over the intermediate horizon – two to five years. >>> convexitymaven.com/wp-content/upl… My Macro-view has not changed much: Higher for longer and T10yr "fair value" near

I rarely respond on this channel, but for clarity on my Stocking Stuffers and Macro-view: I am not "selling products for a fee"; rather I have created products to allow civilians to access my best ideas via an NYSE-listed vehicle since usually only professionals can buy

Wither 60/40 ?? For the past two decades, Investment portfolios (as well as Hedge Fund fortunes) have been built on the 60%/40% stock//bond allocation that relies upon their inverse correlation. This may soon end as interest rate near 5.0% Why...? 1) Discounting equity

“Buy vol” (convexity) near an inflection point….and T30yr at 5.0% is an inflection point. The Trade: Sell UST 20+ ETF vs Buy the "Bond Bull" strategy (~7yr expiry call option on T10yr). The Convexity will soften a further rates back up, while super charging a bond rally.

New Commentary: "Got Duration ?" Most financial managers use Duration to build a balanced portfolio to reduce volatility With a Duration of nearly 40, my new NYSE-listed Bond Bull has 2.5x the horse power of the popular $53bn AUM UST +20yr ETF; and its Convexity allows it to

Trade like the Professionals The pro's (Michael Green) do not buy zero-coupon bonds when they want "hard" Duration, they buy the product contained in the Bond Bull It is unclear why the 25+ Zero ETF has $1.63bn AUM when the Bond Bull will crush it with 1.6x the Duration and 3.5x

Don't be distracted by shiny objects...from my last Commentary... "I will say I do not know if changes to Tariff and Tax policies are bullish or bearish; but what I know for sure is that if the US Government tries to deport more than the 75,000 illegal immigrants who have been

$MOVE vs $VIX inflection.... The popular story of 2023 was the massive increase in the MOVE Index (orange -bond volatility) vs the decline in the VIX Index (white - equity volatility). We are now back to our regularly scheduled programming of a rising VIX relative to the MOVE.

Time for the infamous 2 1/2 day rule....?? I abhor market timing, but it is my experience that when $hit happens, the market peaks and reverses 2.5 days after ignition. Day 1 is shock Day 2 is panic, prayer and a call from Risk Mid-Day 3, capitulation and the position is

Panic update.... $MOVE Index (live) is now at 172, a level only touched in: 1) Oct 1998 LTCM collapse 2) Sep 2008 Lehman collapse 3) Mar 2023 SVB collapse Note - Mar 2020 Covid peak was 164 This is the bond market "stop out" trade, the Hedge Funds are unwinding all their

New Commentary... The Russian author Anton Chekhov famously advised writers to "not put a loaded rifle on the stage if no one is thinking of firing it". President Trump has placed the “Tariff gun” on the table; we cannot unsee it. And as Chekhov has suggested, it was put

For entertainment (not a recommendation) what I am doing for "higher for longer": A (civilian) replication of a trade I did for my personal account yesterday Options on FFG6 (February 2026 Fed Funds Futures) that expire on 2/27/26; after the Jan 28 FOMC, but before the Mar 18