I’ve been describing the supply loss from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as an “air pocket” moving through the normal flow of oil out of the Gulf Helpful map from JPM highlighting when that air pocket will “land” in different major consuming regions: - East Africa last week

Just admit you lost to a better team.

AYA-TOLL where it all likes Hotel California; new piece out (h/t Phil for the Aya-toll!) shrubstack.com/p/welcome-to-t…

Love this guy …

We’re are at the point of history where most April Fool’s jokes are indistinguishable from totally real things that happen regularly now. 😅

Wheat is about the same price as it was at the outbreak of war, same price as last July, with input costs having doubled and a dog crap crop If I was a farmer I'd just stop farming

The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously. This looked weird to me, so I did some digging. Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant

Apparently soft commodities are going to be the cheapest in decades while fertilizer and fuels are the most expensive in decades If I was a farmer I'd probably just retire

For the oil market, these are the only 5 charts that matter right now. From Goldman:

Brutal.

The last 10-days have been unlike any 10-day period in the market since 1950. First, the S&P 500 is up 9.8% in 10-days, which is in the 99.7th percentile of all 10 day returns.

The bear case is that these are atrocious internals for SPX to be making ATHs. The bull case is also, that these are atrocious internals for SPX to be making ATHs.

The year is 2028. NASDAQ is celebrating 500 consecutive up days as Trump continually tweets about how great the deal with Iran will be, despite no additional talks having taken place in 2 years… Brent oil still trades at $100, though physical cargoes trade hands at $500 a

$MSOS - AXIOS: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO RECLASSIFY MARIJUANA AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY

"THE WAR OF WORRY" - Free post, enjoy 🌳🙏 shrubstack.com/p/the-war-of-w…

The global coffee lid business is very, very large. US State mandates on recycled PP are to the tune of >$bns of pounds of recycled PP. (More on that to follow). $PCT’s Pure5 is the one and only recycled PP.

This really feels like shale in 2015, when no one could convince energy companies to stop drilling unprofitable wells...

$QSR Restaurant Brands Intl. is rolling out 30% rPP nationwide in Canada. $PCT PureFive®