It is an honor to see work that I did so many years ago finding such an enduring following. See this from 2010. mcoscillator.com/learning_cente…

Rates unchanged FOMC statement gets a big rewrite. Tightening bias gone, but in a way that says a cut isn’t necessarily imminent. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate” to cut “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably" to 2%

Yet another oddity in current labor market: full-time employment has plunged by nearly 1.4 million people over past three months … rolling 3m change of that magnitude is rare going back in history

Recent ⁦Bloomberg⁩ poll shows more than half of 463 respondents said U.S. consumer spending will stay strong or get even stronger in 2024 … airline tickets, restaurant meals, and concerts in focus for bulk of spending

Leading Economic Index from ⁦The Conference Board⁩ now down by 13.4% from its recent all-time high … continues to be a unique cycle since we’ve never seen this kind of a decline without already being in a recession

How will Fed & Treasury get out of this? The level of reserve repos may reach zero in May or June amidst QT. “The worry is that once there are no longer abundant reserves in the banking sector, then reserves will be scarce, and the consequences could be less support for

This chart 'US Equity Holdings to Liquidity' was presented by CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes in his recent interview with . Something similar that I've been tracking on TradingView is simply $SPX/#NetLiquidity Formula for TradingView:

Bond Yields Up and Gold Up? Our new global bestseller "When Markets Speak" - Classic 1970s action, the inverse relationship between gold and 10-year Treasury yields is starting to decouple. Gold at all-time highs in the face of bond market weakness is trouble for the Fed (and

CHART OF THE DAY: Long A 1970s Style Portfolio Yet? app.hedgeye.com/insights/15026… via Hedgeye

🚨Gold overtakes the euro in global international reserves. In our annual update of the chart below on global international reserves, it shows gold has a greater share than the euro since late 2023. We are of the opinion that gold is at the start of a multi-year bull market

Potential bull steepening/recession signal from the UST yield curve. First, the 2s30s un-inverted for first time since Jan. This one is the bull case so different comparison. Bull steepening LT rates don't move nearly as much as ST, so this isn't some "inflation" signal.

THIS is a huge story that i've been writing about to clients and now (finally) seems to be playing-out. Specs were near-record short JPY despite BoJ tightening and fed bias toward easing. they are getting pummeled. as they cover their shorts look for JPY far stronger. and Yen

1/3 See the blue bar chart ... a new uptrend in inflation is underway (red bars). If inflation were returning, this is how it would look.

Year/year change in revolving credit dipped into negative territory in January ... much deeper plunge typically associated with recessions

Apollo just released a 121 page deck on US real estate and housing outlook Some charts that caught my eye 🧵 1/ Median age of homebuyers is now 56 years old, compared to 31 years old in 1981

This is absolutely insane: US tariff revenue surged +300% in July 2025, bringing in a record $29.6 billion in ONE month. At this pace, tariff revenue could exceed $350 billion PER YEAR through President Trump's term. What does it all mean? Let us explain. (a thread)

This is the definition of broken: In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%. We have RISING interest rates as markets "price-in" Fed interest rate CUTS. Do you realize what's happening? (a thread)

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

The massive implications of a prolonged closure of the Straight of Hormuz are underestimated. An energy crisis could quickly turn into a global food crisis, as the closure will drive up food prices worldwide due to higher fertilizer costs, which, in turn, depend heavily on