Wouldn't call it a full breakout yet, but 10s are higher today by a few bps hovering around 4.30%. Iran situation seems to be getting worse by the hour, with the deadline fast approaching tomorrow.

🇺🇸 US 2Y +6bps on the day following Warsh hearing and news that Iran is not even ready/willing to negotiate with Vance and team. Back to being above 3.75% (current upper Fed Funds).

Since this post in late 2024, $FICO is down 48%. It was indeed richly valued.

Assuming a 6 month closure that is another 2.1 billion (!) barrels of oil that are trapped.

Since this post, $DJT is down -80% and the CEO has recently departed from the company. Thanks for playing, retail!

Silver has taken a backseat to energy so far this year as the war in Iran dominates headlines more than anything else. It is up 7.38% YTD, beating equities by a few percent but trailing gold. Silver was all over this app just 3 months ago. Now I barely see any mention of it.

🇺🇸 Jobless claims come in at 214K (210K est) and continuing claims reach 1821K (1816K est). Both of these readings kept the 4-week moving average largely unchanged from the prior week. Labor market is holding up and appears to be fairly stable. If the Fed looks through the

$235 bn in the 0-2Y area of the curve Less than half of that ($114 bn) in the 5Y+ area of the curve This should surprise no one, as it has been made very clear they will take on the refi risk on the short-end with the wall of maturities due this year.

As part of Niccol's turnaround strategy, Starbucks is focusing heavily on revamping the loyalty program because "in fiscal 2025, the transactions linked to the loyalty program accounted for 60% of the company’s revenue." $SBUX is +18.36% YTD. Earnings are due next week.

Important:

🇺🇸 / 🇨🇦 2 year yields are still near recent highs and remain elevated ever since the run up in early March with the war in Iran. The difference is, Canada’s 2Y rate is more than 50bps above the policy rate, implying 2 hikes are coming. In the U.S., the 2Y rate is just barely

It is important to keep in mind that retail sales in the U.S. and Canada BOTH include the impact of inflation. Thus, when inflation is running high, the headline retail sales number will naturally rise because everyday items cost more, even if consumers are taking home the exact

🇨🇦 Canada budget deficit comes in at $26bn from Apr 2025 - Feb 2026, about $6bn worse than the same period last year.

🇺🇸 2Y inflation breakevens have come down recently, but as shown below they are fairly volatile. Longer term breakevens (5Y and 10Y) remain anchored and this is what Powell frequently references in his FOMC remarks.

🇺🇸 Remarkable how much Bitcoin has underperformed other asset classes since Trump was elected and the ‘golden age of crypto’ began: $IBIT -22% $TLT +1.9% $SPY +21% $SGOV +5.9% Yes, even the 0-3 month Treasury Bill ETF has beaten Bitcoin by 28% over the past year and a half.

They can't even come to the negotiating table together. Sounds healthy

Agreed: US is now a net exporter of oil (most people still aren't aware of this) + swap lines carry no risk for the Fed and actually earn them a bit of interest (other countries need swap lines to buy USD to be able to buy oil).