Here's a list of oil refineries that have mysteriously caught fire or been blown up the last 45 days.

Absolute massive US airforce airlift ongoing to the Middle East today. Really screaming confidence in negotiations with Iran...

The last ships are arriving Then what?

The U.S 🇺🇸 small business capex is indicating GFC levels

EU energy lockdowns are now politely called “remote working.” As food shortages approach, they’ll likely rebrand them as “lean eating.”

Kazakhstan imposes six-month ban on fuel exports (BBC)

American strategists: “We are going to cut off China’s oil, thereby wrecking China.” China’s response? Geopolitical/oil politics version of Good Will Hunting: “Give us the wrench…because f*ck them. That’s why.”

Markets are pricing the end of the crisis while the physical shock hasn’t even started.

Time is working in Iran’s favor.

It is happening.

Liquidity + supply shock = commodity/energy outperformance

UAE to Trump Administration: "You started this war; if we run short of USDs as a result of it, either you will give us USD swap lines, or we will be forced to start transacting oil and gas in CNY and other currencies." -WSJ, just now Via Craig Shapiro

1) Supply shock Oil disruption Fertilizer shortage Logistics breakdown (geopolitization & deglobalisation) 2) Liquidity rising Fiscal expansion Hidden QE-style support 3) Structural underinvestment Energy capex too low Commodity supply constrained Chart by Finding Value Finance

$UKOIL 2h; Aftger breaking 67USD #Oil seem to have a 40dollar volatilit range! Which is pretty hefty

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A WW3 scenario may take the form of a “shadow war,” remaining below public perception until its effects directly impact everyday life.