Can We Believe the Polls? We can't use the logic of random sampling anymore. Weighting is changing but still may not work. New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Brian Schaffner & Michael Bailey niskanencenter.org/can-we-believe…

With the election around the corner, what does political science tell us about how the green transition affects voting? Here’s a thread jam-packed with climate politics and elections research ⬇️

Now in American Political Science Review: What do politicians think about their voters? Fielding face-to-face surveys to 982 sitting politicians in 11 countries, and surveys of 12,000 citizens, we find they have remarkably consistent - and cynical - theories of voters: /1 doi.org/10.1017/S00030…

Final notes from my reporting in Latino communities during the election: 80% of Latinos are working class. Their experience of the economy the past four years—Covid shutdowns, inflation, gas prices, housing costs—was rough. That puts the incumbent Dems at a disadvantage. 🧵1/9

FINAL: City of Dearborn results (includes the less Arab, West Dearborn portion as well) 🔴 Trump 43% 🔵 Harris 36% 🟢 Stein 18% 🔵 Slotkin 41% 🔴 Rogers 39% 🟢 Green candidate 15% City was 80% for Biden in 2020

64% of Latino men vote for Donald Trump in Texas. Biden carried Latino men in Texas in 2020.

Important: any ongoing racial depolarization in the electorate is creating *more* polarization on *racial attitudes*. Black and Latino voters who are now voting Republican tend to have conservative views on race and immigration. For example... goodauthority.org/news/america-i…

we first show how democrats and republicans sort into distinctive colleges, majors, occupations, industries, and employers. at each stage of their trajectory through the labor market, democrats and republicans are making different decisions. we can see this in great detail.

Harris ran a centrist campaign but was still perceived as more liberal than Biden (& ideologically further from voters)

Americans have no idea how difficult legal immigration is for "high-skilled immigrants". I have 4 degrees incl a PhD. Einstein visa. 250K salary at FAANG. Lived in this country since I was a teenager. I won't be able to obtain citizenship until middle age Guide for Intl PhDs🧵

Policies to keep out unskilled immigrants - but let in the skilled - didn't work in the 1920s (dropbox.com/scl/fi/use60jl…) and won't work today. Here's why:

🎉 Congratulations to the Women and Non-binary Research Group at CCCP! 🏆 The Jenny Gusyk Prize for Equality was awarded to this amazing group for their outstanding work in promoting diversity and inclusion in academia. 🌈📚✨ Details 🔗: uni.koeln/LS92U #wisocgn #UoC

We are very happy to be hosting Carlo Prato from Columbia University next week as part of our "Political Science and Political Economy" lecture series. All welcome!

Planning on attending the EPSA conference in June? Consider coming one day before and joining our (w/ Emmy Lindstam Joan Ricart-Huguet) one-day workshop on Culture at IE University IE Political Science. Deadline to apply is Feb 15th 2024. More info and submissions at forms.gle/S9id4GsVwokKfY…

Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc. In a word: Harvard. Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard. 🧵

Yesterday, we had the pleasure of welcoming our guest Carlo Prato Columbia University to our lecture series on "Political Science and Political Economy" together with Comp Pol Cologne. Thank you for the insights into your research! If you'd like to know more about the PSPE lectures

📢 Submit your work to the Junior Workshop on HPE organized by @TinePaulsen, Fran Villamil & myself. 📍 UC3M-IC3JM – Madrid 🗓️ June 25, 2025 (before EPSA) 📝 Deadline: Feb 21, 2025 🔗 Apply: forms.gle/F5zPJRWn6gr4CW… ℹ️ More info: pauvallprat.com/hpe-workshop #HPE #EPSA2025

White Londoners voted Labour by 16 points Labour 39% Conservative 23% Lib Dem 12% Reform 12% Green 9%

Cool paper, and a nice thread summarizing the key findings: