1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble: Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -

I’ll spell it out explicitly one last time. Everyone thinks Trump wants balanced trade. He does not. He wants to force allies to stop trading with China. Completely. Zero inbound supply. Because it’s not just because of American jobs. It’s a proactive move to slow down

11 AI Prompting Heuristics (things I've learned automating my personal/financial decisions ) Heuristic 1: Follow all the instructions first and then do the response aka chain of reasoning 'Always do these three things before returning a response 1. identify the leading expert

Joe Weisenthal Also Bessent already said this in an interview with annmarie hordern “Big deal to be had” … “unsustainable” … this isn’t exactly new information even if it’s behind closed doors!

A bit of background on Taiwan ahead of what may be an eventful week. Certainly there will be a lot attention on the action to Taiwan's central bank after Friday's TWD move. Key context: the TWD is incredibly weak 1/

May 12th is a special day for me. I can not imagine getting more meaningful (to me) professional recognition than I received exactly two years ago from Paul Krugman. What's more, it was for an issue that is now much more prominent: pharmaceutical tax avoidance! 1/

nearly everything that is a good repeatable trading idea looks like: "under <some circumstances> this thing is likely to be too cheap/rich because <some people> are being forced or greedy or stupid... so the thing is more likely to go up/down in the future"

Alright so - it's Saturday which means it's time to rant. I've endlessly talked about the 'base case' of society which I'd describe as follows: A] Technology and the distraction economy is already so delightful that it's impossible to resist B] We know for a fact that

Raise $10M seed. Put in a 4.5% yield checking account. 3 days later tell investors “we’re at a $450K run rate.” They give you another $50M. 3 days later tell investors, “you’re not going to believe this but we’re at a $2.7M run rate” Repeat until you IPO.

5 investor archetypes right now: a) Gen Z buying unprofitable shitcos on margin and they’re up +42,690% YTD so you can’t tell them anything to change their mind and thinking they’re Druckenmiller b) Gold boomers polishing rocks and building more bomb shelters for the eventual

Box 首席执行官 Aaron Levie 在访谈中为创业者指明了一条清晰却反直觉的道路：放弃优化旧地图，全力寻找 AI 创造的新大陆。 他警告，创业公司最大的陷阱，就是去做“带 AI 功能的 CRM”或“AI 赋能的 HR 软件”。为什么？因为这是典型的维持性创新，是现有巨头（如

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My pleasure to come on Dwarkesh last week, I thought the questions and conversation were really good. I re-watched the pod just now too. First of all, yes I know, and I'm sorry that I speak so fast :). It's to my detriment because sometimes my speaking thread out-executes my

👷Surviving the AI Capex Boom👷 Big Tech's AI buildout is transforming markets but history suggests caution. What should investors do? 🤖 AI Investment Boom 🚂 Echoes of Past Booms 📉 Rising Capex Firms Underperform 🏭 Magnificent 7: The New Utility? 🔎 Finding AI Early Adopters

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26 weapons grade parenting tips: 1/ Give them a "heads up," 5 minutes until bedtime, 10 minutes before leaving the playground 2/ Look at the world more through their eyes 3/ Don’t discipline like an angry madman. Stay calm and firm, model how you want THEM to resolve conflict

THE PERSONAL PANOPTICON. A few months ago, I started running my life out of Claude Code. Not out of intention to do so, it was just the place where everything met. And it just kept working. Empires are won by conquest. What keeps them standing is something much quieter. Before

I’m disappointed to see Taiwan’s opposition parties in parliament slash President Lai’s defense budget so dramatically. The original proposal funded urgently needed weapons systems. Taiwan’s parliament should reconsider—especially with rising Chinese threats.

轉：高市早苗的这番言论，代表几乎所有发达国家的对华想法，其他人嘴上不说，高市早苗心直口快而已。

LLM Knowledge Bases Something I'm finding very useful recently: using LLMs to build personal knowledge bases for various topics of research interest. In this way, a large fraction of my recent token throughput is going less into manipulating code, and more into manipulating