I see that the right-wingers in the UK are finding the re-election of Khan as London Mayor a bit difficult to stomach and are trying to deploy The Trump Excuse... bless their little insular socks!
Although it's a handy reminder of how right-wing this platform probably is now.

I just switched on to one of the more famous storm chaser lads (why is it *all* men?) who shouts a lot almost killing himself. Lads, lads, lads...

One minute's silence for the Main Development Region hot streak that ended today #thoughtsandprayers

In case why you wonder I seem mildly obsessed with all this SST nonsense, see here. And yes, I know it's all about landfalls for losses, but a) not enough data and b) yet to be convinced landfall % is anything other than a constant rather than a function of SST. Hence: concerned.

Another look at projecting the Main Devpmt Region SSTs forwards based on historical MDR warming behaviour as of 24 Apr onward. Even if we hit only the 10th percentile of warming since 24/4 we end up 0.2 degrees cooler than 2023's super-warm year. Over to you, Saharan dust, etc.

Published on Monday in Nature npj Climate and Atmospheric Science:

'Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán'

Available here:

nature.com/articles/s4161…

Work conducted by Andrew J.…

With about 6 weeks to go to the hurricane season, the 2024 Main Development Region SSTs - based on 1982-2023 SST averages - are more akin to 8 weeks *into* the hurricane season!

The Main Development Region is currently 'Dammit, I'm not letting go of my run of daily record highs'...

Once again my surface knowledge (ha ha) is cruelly exposed - SSTs might be ending their record but... twitter.com/BMcNoldy/statu…

The next day or so (unless it rapidly warms) should see the Main Development Region *not* be a day-of-year temperature record (using OISST data back to 1981) for the first time in about 320 days...see black (2024) line vs red (2010) line - and also blue line back into 2023...

Punchy. Either will be seen as visionary or over-excitable come November.

For anyone interested, some thoughts on the hurricane season for Inigo by myself and my excellent colleagues Ruth Petrie and Tyler Cox linkedin.com/feed/update/ur…

I don't look on here loads but I'm guessing that cloud seeding is the new Catnip For Career Contrarians?

After spending two days' holiday in ostensibly dry weather wondering why I wasn't watching any cricket because of a damp outfield, I now have some sympathy for ground-staff in England & Wales where on average it's been the wettest Feb+Mar since 1950 according to ERA5 data...

Bit more fun fiddling with present-day SST data as a predictor of hurricane season SST temperatures. Can see broadly how early April SST correlates with summer warmth but there's always some intriguing outliers. 2023 was only 6th warmest at April 5 but warmed rapidly thereafter.

Just wanted to flag up how much of a fillip the clocks going forward is for me (and I'm sure others) who find winter a real struggle. Still being pretty light at almost 7 o'clock is a joy: and it stays lighter than all the way until Sep 10th...