Aside from Russia, most major global markets have, perhaps surprisingly, taken the invasion of Ukraine largely in stride. Given the huge uncertainty around the conflict and the economic fallout from it, however, that could change quickly. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

So far, war in Ukraine has had limited impact on FX markets. But the impact on commodity prices and monetary policy suggest that the downside risks for European currencies have risen, while prospects for commodity currencies have improved. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

History suggests that large disruptions to oil supply, which a proposed ban on imports of Russia’s oil would probably represent, could weigh heavily on the US stock market. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

The 10Y Gilt yield fell yesterday after the UK Chancellor announced a fairly modest support package in the Spring Fiscal Statement. But we still expect it to rise between now and end-2023 as the BoE continues to tighten monetary policy. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

Following their strong appreciation against the US dollar since the start of the year, we expect Latin American currencies in general to reverse some of their gains over the remainder of 2022. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

If the near-inverted 2Y-10Y curve is grossly exaggerating the probability of a US recession in 12m's time because it has been distorted by Fed asset purchases, the flip side is the risk of an even higher 10Y yield when they turn into sales. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We think China’s stock market will continue to struggle, as the slowdown in global growth that we forecast weighs on earnings and valuations make little headway. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

The Brazilian real has reversed some of its rally against the US dollar last week, and we think there is scope for it to weaken a bit further this year. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

While we think US inflation peaked in March, we still expect long-term Treasury yields to grind higher over the rest of 2022. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

Growing evidence of slowing economic growth in China suggests to us that government bond yields there will continue to fall, and that the renminbi will – eventually – follow suit. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

Although the further dip in the S&P 500 yesterday means that it has now fallen by ~11% since its high at the start of this year, we think that the index is unlikely to recover significantly any time soon. This is for three main reasons. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We don’t subscribe to the view that high inflation in the US justifies a very big drop in equities there. Even so, we do think its valuation looks a bit high even if inflation has topped out, especially given a less-than-rosy growth outlook. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

The US equity market struggled to make much ground during the rapid rate hikes of 1994/95, and there is reason to think it might do worse this time around if the Federal Reserve continues to tighten as aggressively as we expect. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We expect three of the major trends in markets last week – higher long-dated US Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and faltering equity markets – to continue for a while yet. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We think that the underperformance of US growth stocks relative to value stocks has further to run, given that the relative P/E ratios of US growth are still unusually high, and that there seems more scope for their earnings to disappoint. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We doubt that the recent fall in the yield of 10-year Gilts will continue. Indeed, we expect it to rebound to a significantly higher level than its recent peak over the next year or so. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

Euro-zone “peripheral” spreads have narrowed significantly on the back of yesterday’s emergency ECB meeting, but we think that they will resume their rise before long. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We think renewed optimism about the US economy of late is overdone. Our view that the US economy is set for a weak patch is one reason why we expect many “risky” assets to reverse their recent gains. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…

We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar. See our Daily: capitaleconomics.com/publications/c…