Yeah we didn’t see it coming. Trump sweeping the swing states was only the (checks notes) likeliest swing state combination in our model.

We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat. Some of those stories may even be true! But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇

🧵 New note published in JEPOP! 🎉 While much research focuses on what drives voter support for the radical right, less attention is paid to how candidate shortages impact these parties. Here’s what I found: 👇

#VendrediLecture 📚 #COVIDー19 #paneldata Nouvelle #Publication de Sylvain Brouard CEVIPOF - Sciences Po dans French Politics👇 doi.org/10.1057/s41253… Les données des 28 vagues du panel FCAUCP sont désormais accessibles via CDSP Sciences Po 👇 doi.org/10.21410/7E4/M…

Hanácko-Brněnsko-Slovenská spolupráce🇸🇰🇨🇿 a její výsledek!📰🖊️📊 Mapy, regrese a storytelling k tomu! Ty sněmovní volby vlastně naznačily prohru Korčoka, populistická levice získávala i ve větších městech, kde relativně poklesla i volební účast ➡️2025🇨🇿🤔 ceeol.com/search/viewpdf…

My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad!

Our paper on "Electoral Turnovers" with Benjamin Marx and Vincent Rollet is now forthcoming at The Review of Economic Studies ! Full thread on what we do and find here: x.com/VinPons/status…

We have a new working paper on gender backlash. Making use of a new shift-share instrument and Swiss panel data, we find that higher labour market participation of women leads to more gender conservative attitudes among men. They do not translate into far right support, however.

The shadow economy hurts democratic responsiveness because it reduces government revenues and decreases the reliability of economic statistics ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/14…

Podcast Alert! 🚨In the sixth episode of our podcast Viktor Burgi and I talk to Silja Häusermann about the crisis of the social democratic parties, its origins and what strategies these parties might adopt to get out of it. 🧵👇 open.spotify.com/episode/2XAD6y…

With Fox News hosts nominated for the cabinet, I wanted to share takeaways from two recently-accepted papers w Josh Kalla on partisan TV. There's been much skepticism that partisan TV actually affects public opinion. Our findings rebut that skepticism: partisan media matters! 🧵

“austerity measures increase both electoral abstention and votes for non-mainstream parties… the effects of austerity on polarization are particularly pronounced when the mainstream right and left parties both stand for fiscal restraint.“

🆕 What causes #PoliticalTrust? @DanJDevine, Viktor Valgarðsson, Will Jennings, Gerry Stoker & Dr. Hannah Bunting present the first experimental study of the distinct roles of ✅ competence, 😊 benevolence and 🤝 integrity in shaping trust in government. 👉 bit.ly/3VqdrMr #OA

📘 Vol 63.4 🗣️ It's trade, stupid! Using a dataset spanning 20 years, Andreas Dür Robert A. Huber & Y Stiller explore whether changes in a #subnational region's 🌐 #TradeCompetitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region 🗳️ bit.ly/42JEmVP 🔓 #OA #Elections

New article accepted at Comparative Political Studies. @denis-cohen.bsky.social Thomas Kurer and I analyze how rental market risk affects radical right support. Combining data on local rent increases with the SOEP, we find that individuals facing increasing local rents become more likely to support the AfD. 🧵

To what extent are campaign priorities contrasted or convergent, and why? In our forthcoming Comparative Political Studies article, Emiliano Grossman @egrossman.bsky.social and I argue that parties converge to similar priorities because they monitor each other and take up issues from opponents 👇

🚨 New #OpenAccess publication alert! 🚨 Why do parties sometimes bend over backwards to accommodate new demands, and why do they remain focused on their core policies at other times? Over the moon to see my single-authored study out in EJPR journal 👉 doi.org/10.1111/1475-6…

Political parties are, on average, more likely to seize the opportunity to win over new voters when they perceive their established voter base as sufficiently loyal ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/14…

When mainstream parties signal openness to ruling with radical right populists, it benefits the latter without yielding electoral gains for the mainstream journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.117…