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How are key regional actors responding to the escalating Israel-Iran conflict? Read the latest #RUSICommentary from Burcu Ozcelik to find out. rusi.org/explore-our-re…

Spoke with Polo Sandoval this morning about the asymmetric threats that could still loom ahead—despite the Iran-Israel ceasefire. Much will depend on the truce holding, the future of nuclear diplomacy, and Iran's regional (re)posturing and network of non-state armed groups.

'It's the allies who are closer to the threat from Russia in the north and the east of the alliance who are spending more and as we get down to southern allies, the spending tends to go to 2%, if not lower' notes RUSI's Rachel Ellehuus to BBC News (UK). bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

With the ceasefire, diplomacy may be back. The challenge? Bargaining positions remain largely unchanged and a deep trust deficit hangs over future talks as all sides spin their own version of victory. Revisiting this in The New York Times with quotes from me. nytimes.com/2025/06/22/wor…

🎙Amidst the evolving European security landscape, the latest #GlobalSecurityBriefing episode examines the UK's path to navigate an uncertain world, prompting questions about how Labour will deliver on its promises and fund increased defence spending.

My podcast interview with Amberin Zaman Iran was battered by Israel and US, but its regime is intact… al-monitor.com/podcasts/iran-… via AL-Monitor

صورة للتاريخ عدنا إلى وطننا و إلى دولتنا في قلب دمشق المحرّرة، اجتمعنا نحن، شبابًا وشاباتٍ سوريين من المهجّرين إلى أصقاع الأرض؛ بعضنا هجر خلال سنوات الثورة، وبعضنا وُلد في الغربة ولم يعرف أرضه يومًا. ومع ذلك، تفوّقنا في مياديننا، ورفعنا اسم ثورتنا و عملنا من اجلها حيثما حللنا

People have a tendency to see conflicts in Middle East only from a land/urban perspective, supported by air, but the region is surrounded by key seas and sees key countries investing into their navies.. A podcast I joined to explain this: snr.org.uk/the-mariners-m…

Al-Shabaab alliance with Yemen's Houthis continues to grow - hiiraan.com/news4/2025/Jun…

Erdogan says Trump would join Ukraine peace talks in Turkey if Putin attends reuters.com/world/middle-e…

In the post-ceasefire frenzy, a significant but underexamined development is the prospect of a US policy shift on sanctions—particularly regarding Chinese refineries importing Iranian crude and the broader enforcement of sanctions on Iranian oil exports + The emerging message

TSC Senior Research Fellow Colin P. Clarke and Christopher P. Costa with Foreign Policy "Terrorism Means Something Different Now" foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/25/cou…

The “manhunt” for spies would also “likely deflect attention away from higher level officials in Iran who may be held responsible for Israel’s successful intelligence penetration inside Iran” nbcnews.com/world/middle-e… via @nbcnews

My piece for Carnegie Endowment on the impact of US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, including the damage, long-term pathways to reconstitution, internal debates in Iran, and the future of the IAEA carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/…

Wrote this before the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but the dynamics still apply. Regional actors share an instinct for stability—and deep concern over the precedent Israeli military action could set. These forces will shape what comes next, including any shot at diplomacy.

In response to Khamenei’s message President Trump says he has “immediately dropped all work on sanction relief, and more”.

The speed and cyclical nature of the action/reaction loop driving events in both the Middle East and Washington really give the name ping-pong diplomacy a run for its money...🏓