My 2024 election forecast published in PS: Political Science & Politics Cambridge University Press - Politics with Julius Lagodny, @jcolner99, and Anusha Kumar correctly forecasted 45/45 called states 100 days before the election using Verasight: bit.ly/40vsasH.

I've posted this a couple of times, but here are 40 pages on the 2021-23 elections. It's dense, but the pictures tell a story, and the story is that people were either badly misled or misled themselves about that election. 1/ aei.org/research-produ… aei.org/research-produ…

So far, very limited change in state legislatures other than Michigan & Minnesota losing Democratic trifectas. Republicans have gained ~50 seats out of 7,386 nationally (including 26 in Vermont). Democrats gained in Wisconsin & Montana due to districting ncsl.org/state-legislat…

I owe my career to first learning BASIC on a Commodore 64 as a kid. RIP.

My article "Measuring Ideological Polarization on the Circuit Courts of Appeals 1953-2022" is now up at Journal of Law & Courts. doi.org/10.1017/jlc.20…

lol. And also, undergrad admissions essays should be banned

Assad is still in possession of the Dynasty Key and the Long Tenure Key. So his odds of retaining the presidency remain strong, even with recent setbacks.

Just posted: newly available state legislator individual ideology estimates! Based on a decade plus of work with Nolan McCarty. New data covers 1993-2022, and now contains 28,987 state legislators. Let us know how you use our data! dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?…

I figured I'd take a crack at a quick #MDPol #mdpol look at the estimated ideology (progressive vs conservative) of state legislators going back to the 2022 session (using roll call votes). Here I plot D vs R coalitions by chamber. Senate caucuses *relatively* more mod than House

I knew publication bias in political science was bad; I didn't know it was this bad. "98.8% of abstracts report non-null results compared to only 16.9% reporting null findings."

We wrapped up the 2025 edition of #TexMeth hosted by Hobby School of Public Affairs and University of Houston Political Science with great presentations, posters and discussions: uh.edu/hobby/cpp/even…. Looking forward to the 2026 edition at The Bush School, TAMU. The TX (and beyond) polisci methods community remains strong!

After being alerted about possible misconduct, the I4R are reproducing published papers that use data from a specific NGO (GDRI). This thread releases the first 2 reports and provides more information about the work and responses/statements from authors journals and journals. 🧵

Congratulations to Boris Shor (Boris Shor) and coauthor Nolan McCarty (Nolan McCarty), who won the Jewel Enduring contribution award given by the State Policy and Politics section of APSA for their paper "The Ideological Mapping of American Legislatures." doi.org/10.1017/S00030…

🚨NEW PAPER: Why are Members of Congress so extreme? We conducted a 4-wave panel of thousands of voters in 27 districts during last year’s primary AND general elections to trace polarization’s roots The results challenge conventional wisdom… and suggest lessons for parties🧵👇

Congratulations to Boris Shor (Boris Shor) on the publication of his new article, "Are State Legislative Leaders Moderates?" in Legislative Studies Quarterly (Legislative Studies Quarterly). Read the article here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

In data analysis, 99% of the knowledge is generated in the journey — cleaning, testing, validating, exploring. If you outsource this to an LLM (Hi Claude, please clean this dataset and generate me a graph), you will learn little and very often get the wrong answer. 1/

We have measured support for partisan murder for the last 3 years. Following Kirk's assassination support dropped to ~*1%* from around 3% in the weeks before. True for Democrats, Republicans and even MAGA Republicans. Americans reject political violence.

🚨 UH students: Apply for the $2,000 Richard Murray Endowed Scholarship by Oct. 13. Open to all University of Houston students passionate about public service. 🔗 bit.ly/40ktPhL 🗓️ Deadline: Monday, Oct. 13

The academic job market is doing something very good this year: A lot of searches are *NO* longer asking for reference letters until applicants make the short list. This makes is easier to apply for jobs, reduces the letter writing load for faculty, and makes the review process