Lower interest rates.

Odd day today, SPX closed above it's 50d for 75 days and is up over +15% from 15 weeks ago. Since 1994 this has happened only a few other times... cc: Walter Deemer

It's been 100 trading days since the October 27th low and $SPX is up 27%. Similar times noted below. Recessions in shaded grey. 👉The near-term drawdown over the next 2-3 months was 5-10% 👉The bull runs continued further after the pullback.

An update; ended up being a 6% pullback.

Jim Carroll A recent history of vol inversions...

A rare large reversal day on SPY. Below are the most similar days to today since 2010:

The majority of days similar to today's large reversal occurred under a high VIX. When looking at cases where VIX < 20, there were only 3 hits going all the way back to 1993: Oct 2, 2015 Feb 9, 2018 and today...

A note on Initial Claims: The non-seasonally adjusted data is currently in line with data since 2018. Comparing this to other recessions, you typically see a rise to seasonally high levels as a recession draws near.

Random stat...today; -SPX was down -2.6% - closed at -5.7% under the 20dma - while 30% of SPX was still green Since 2007, the other similar times...

Today will be the 15th consecutive close of SPX below the 8 EMA. Below are the other instances since 2007.

I don't place any weight on AAII but still pretty interesting the results you can get when you data mine a survey enough.

Walter Deemer Since 2007, for the first 90% upside after a 10% drawdown, only one case went straight up (Dec 2018). Every other case either retested the lows or made new lows in the following weeks.

Back-to-back large volume upside days (86% and 91%). Below are the similar times with two >85% upside volume days immediately following a rapid <-8% decline. Six prior instances, all of them bearish towards a retest of the recent lows.

The times SPX had 21-day gains >13% going back to 1960.

While high NYSE upside days are often bullish, there are two different scenarios to consider: Chart 1) NYSE upside volume >95% usually signals a local bottom has been found Chart 2) NYSE upside volume >80% after 3 months of not having a 3% pullback can be a sign to be cautious

Here are the instances of VIX dropping over 15% in one session since over the last 6 years.

⚠️VIX Signaling near-term caution?⚠️ It's rare to see VIX down >15% after being up >15% the prior day while not even breaking 1% below the 20 day average. Since 2010, there have been just nine priors... All but one ended the next week red📉

Nope. Here are all the times Hindenburg hit since 2024.