My very long take on a potential Polymarket token, and the alleged $9b valuation. (Kalshi also has a nosebleed valuation, but I'm going to focus on Polymarket specifically here because of the rumored airdrop for users) I've been trading on Polymarket since January 2021,

crazy that artificial intelligence needs the entire output of like 3 nuclear reactors to operate but actual intelligence can run on just 2 zyns and a black coffee

Excited to check in on the results of the LLM trading experiment! I expect that after another 9 days that DeepSeek and Qwen are up another 100% right? Oh...

Bill Ackman Zohran Kwame Mamdani Elon Musk Bill you're like a ninety year old on Facebook. The video literally says it is AI generated. Delete your account

I am afraid that the LeCun-Wang swap was not a good trade.

performative intelligence is a scourge

The attacks on Europe I've seen here the last couple of days, including from people I've generally considered interesting and sophisticated, have been getting unhinged... I get that EU has problems - GDPR clickthroughs are dumb, Chat Control is awful, they need to be less

we got fintwit drake versus kendrick before gta 6

who are the best vibe coders in the world right now? what are the most impressive vibe coded projects out there which aren't just something done in a single day or two?

I keep saying; get out now, get a job at a faang or lab. The well is poisoned, your equity is likely worthless in an IP driven company.

there's some truth to this but the most common use of all these new knobs and levers is procrastination

claude --dangerously-skip-permissions

I spent today experimenting with Claude Code. Note that I’m not a professional software developer, I’m a researcher who writes code. This was all with Opus 4.5. My initial thoughts on using it with a large, mature quant finance codebase: - It *really* benefits from structure.

What I love about finance is that opinions don't matter, the market will decide who wins and loses. But I'll just say, this isn't like competing against taxi companies. We're extremely technologically sophisticated firms that have been in a death match for decades.

new thesis just dropped: every vibe coded software will eventually turn into insufferable slop without chance to improve claude:

My 142th To-Do app iteration is going strong!