We are so back. #ThankYouJoe

Highly recommend reading this article. One of Biden's most important legacies was challenging neoliberalism, which may someday help Dems regain ground in rural America. As a party, we need to focus less on Trump and more on the economic conditions that fuel right-wing populism.

I have a new post up about the state of the presidential race. It's remarkable how much Kamala has reset things. After just two weeks, she's starting to pull ahead of Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, and the two are tied in Pennsylvania. Give it a read: countdownto2024.substack.com/p/three-months…

I have a new post out this weekend about the state of the race, and there's plenty of good news for Harris. She has strong leads in national and state polls, but there's still some real uncertainty about her position in the Electoral College. Take a look: countdownto2024.substack.com/p/ten-weeks-st…

Imagine that Harris released the details of a plan to gradually lower, but not eliminate, the national debt over 50 years. It would include a combination of spending freezes (not cuts) and tax increases, geared more towards the latter. How do you feel this would change the race?

Something I wish Harris would emphasize is that if Trump wins, he'll likely control both chambers of Congress. On the other hand, a Harris win would still mean divided control, since the Senate is bound to flip to the GOP. It's a distinction that could matter to some voters.

My final look at the seven swing states is now live! For anyone who has found it hard to keep up with the presidential race lately, my post might help sort things out. Bottom line: it's incredibly close, but Harris's path to victory is also pretty clear. countdownto2024.substack.com/p/a-final-look…

Just a reminder of how random US politics can be, imagine that Hillary Clinton had won the 2008 Democratic primary. She would've beat McCain and likely won in 2012, meaning that 2016 may have been Obama vs. Trump. Dems got unlucky having Obama in 2008, when he was needed in 2016.

I know how hard the last week has been, but there's no doubt that Democrats will flip the House in 2026, and probably even the Senate, too. And in the near term, the GOP has very little room to maneuver in the House, which will make Trump's life miserable. It's nothing like 2017.

Simply put, she needs to be the future of our party, as with any other Democrats who can win in tough places.

Still amazing how Democrats overperformed in the House, where Republicans only won a 5-seat majority. GOP vacancies will make it even closer; House Dems may have some leverage to stop Trump. Check out my article from the other day for more on the House: countdown2026.substack.com/p/why-the-red-…

Democrats just chose their nominee for the upcoming special election in New York’s 21st House district. His name's Blake Gendebien, and he seems like a strong pick. Dems have a chance, however slim, to flip this seat blue, and they have to make it a real race.

By itself, Pennsylvania could flip the House blue next fall, as Dems only narrowly lost three House seats in PA last year. The 7th, 8th, and 10th districts are easy targets for the midterms. I cover those House seats, and more, in my post today about PA. countdown2026.substack.com/p/pennsylvania…

I have a new post this weekend about the 5 key Senate races of 2026. Basically, if Dems can flip Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio while defending Georgia and Michigan, they'll win 50 Senate seats. It won't be easy, but it's the best way to win back power. countdown2026.substack.com/p/the-key-sena…

This is big news, and if Dan ends up running for Nebraska's Senate seat, he could absolutely win in a year like 2026, given that he almost won last fall. Please, share this widely, as Dan is testing the waters, and deserves the support. Dems have a lot to gain from him running.

Random thought: what if Steve Bullock won the Democratic nomination back in 2020? I'm still surprised by how little support he got in the primary, but purely electorally, he was probably the strongest candidate. And alone among the 2020 Dems, Bullock had a shot at a second term.

Sean is a Democrat from southwest Michigan who could end up flipping a historically Republican House seat. I basically never donate money to politicians, but I'm considering it, and anything sent to him would be money well-spent.

I've been keeping track of competitive House seats for the midterms, and I have ratings for each seat, based on how likely they are to flip. I'd be very curious to hear from folks if they think my ratings are too generous (or not enough) for Democrats. countdown2026.substack.com/p/two-dozen-ho…

I didn't realize that Tennessee's 7th, where the special election took place a few days ago, is one of the country's most educated House districts. It's the type of place where the long-term trends favor Dems, and I hope we make a play for it next fall with a stronger candidate.

Exciting news out of #Texas, where a Democrat just flipped a state senate seat based in Tarrant County. Just to give a sense of how much Tarrant has shifted, look at the presidential election results in recent years: 2012: R+16 2016: R+9 2020: D+0.2 Yes, Biden narrowly won it.