Yeah, this wasn’t ideological. It wasn’t about Kamala Harris. The cake was just baked, and none of us realized it.

It’s fascinating, isn’t it? Diving deep into updates, polls, electoral analyses, etc. in anticipation of a major election only for it to be done and gone in a matter of hours. This time feels a lot different too. Lots of mental wandering. Alas.

One heartbreaking thing about PA-08? Cartwright actually posted his best overperformance yet against the top of the ticket - about 0.5-1 pt better than 2020 and 7+ pts better than Harris. Even more remarkable given improved candidate quality for the GOP in that district.

We never left.

For some context, he won Northampton in his last race in 2021 by 12 while the top of the Dem ticket did so by ~2. He was running against an absolute psycho/nutjob, though. Now we wait to hear what Wild says…

Here’s the rub - rolling over just tells the GOP that they can do whatever they’d like, including cutting Dems out of negotiations + skipping town and they will always cave. It’s more than a bad CR at this point, what with half the government already shut down or cut anyway.

While I suggest caution given that heavy Dem overperformances were typical in '23-24 despite what happened last Nov, flipping a seat like this is crazy stuff, especially with this kind of turnout. Even more so since D's flubbed some seats in the State Senate last cycle.

Shapiro: “Hey, I don’t agree with the tariffs.” *Firebombs mansion w/ planned murder.* “Both SiDesssssssssss!!!”

Some new statewide numbers on U.S. Senator John Fetterman courtesy of SP&R. 🟢 Approve: 41% 🔴 Disapprove: 37% 🟡 Don’t Know: 22% Amongst Parties: 🔵 DEM: 40% approve / 39% disapprove 🔴 GOP: 45% approve / 37% disapprove Bonus: 43/48 underwater in Philly. 713 LVs, 6/17-6/21