There is a markedly significant difference between '20 and '24 in terms of investment in offices and ground game on the part of PA Dems and that has to be factored into the equation. They trialed iterations of this over the last two cycles.

This is essentially targeted warfare.

Currently waiting to board a flight to Harrisburg (feel free to say hi if you’re in town!), so it’s Q&A time. Anyone have questions about yesterday’s PA primary or outlook on this fall?

Ask away.

Plenty of spin this morning, so let me make something clear - along with being a closed primary, VBM in PA is highly polarized. There is not a lot of crossover.

Those Haley voters last night are not secret Dems or temporary switchers. For Dems, mostly ancestrals protested Biden.

FYI - the steady clip of counting you saw come out of PA today will be much closer to what it'll be this fall compared to '20. There are still problems here and there, but most counties have a solidified process + Allegheny will report VBM first.

Expect blue --> red shift.

Over back in PA HD-139, just about all of the vote is in and the Republican wins 58.3% - 41.7% (R+16.6), marking a Dem overperformance of a little over 11 pts in this Trump+28 district - probably 10-ish in the end.

This is an almost entirely rural district too. Absolutely wild.

In tonight's tale of split fields, Ryan Mackenzie in PA-07 appears to have cinched the nomination over his opponents in the GOP primary to face Susan Wild.

He is, in my view, the weakest of the three people Wild could've faced.

May move this to lean DEM soon.

Largely under the radar, we have a special election going on over in PA HD-139, a Trump+28 district. With a third of the vote in, the Democratic candidate leads 67.5-32.5.

She'll lose, but we're on track for a possible overperformance given the early split. TBD.

✅ Race call: Summer Lee prevails over Bhavini Patel in the PA-12 primary, putting her on track to win a second term.

Jeff Yass invested heavily to beat her, but to no avail.

It's still early, but a pattern is developing statewide. Trump is struggling heavily to clear 60-65% of the EV in a lot of the early reporting counties, mostly the suburban ones. Biden's taking ~95% of the vote easily in those.

Reminder: VBM went out after Haley dropped out.

🚨 ALLEGHENY FIRST RESULTS (VBM)

🔵 POTUS - DEM

Biden: 70,333 (91.4%)
Phillips/Write-In: 6,595 (8.6%)

🔴 POTUS - GOP

Trump: 9,411 (60.8%)
Haley/Write-In: 6,064 (39.2%)

🟡 PA-12 Primary

Lee (Inc): 22,209 (55%)
Patel: 18,029 (44.7%)

The polls in PA close in a few minutes. Shortly, we will start gleaning some important tea leaves and signals for what happens in November. Stay tuned for updates...

All I have to say for now is this - Allegheny incoming. 👀