Confounding variable here is Libertarian share: 2006: 2.6 2012: 6.6 2018: 2.9

The best way to ensure the Holocaust doesn’t happen again may be not electing people who make excuses for Nazi apologists

Guys... I'm working through some things..... It's business, Maurice... it's (gritted teeth) BUSINESS......

NEW: Harris campaign spox Morgan Finkelstein weighs in on the Vance/Carlson kerfuffle to me, calling Vance's comments "extremely dangerous" — "We strongly disagree w/ Vance's position that letting neo-Nazis have their say is the best way to prevent another Holocaust."

The perfect ad, and on a Friday night, for this tasty Craig Gilbert dive into the driftless and beyond of W Wisc jsonline.com/story/news/pol…

Imagine traveling back in time 20 years to tell your younger self that RFK Jr. is supporting the Republican for president, who is Donald Trump, and Dick Cheney is supporting the Democrat, who is a black female San Francisco liberal.

NEVADA. The state Supreme Court has disqualified the Green Party from this year’s ballot, ruling the party failed to include statutorily required language on their petitions.

“It’s also home to tens of thousands of voters who get much of their news and broadcast advertising from neighboring Minnesota … a unique test of whether the selection of Walz provides any measurable boost to the Democratic ticket with rural voters.”

Why are folks going nuts over Silver giving Trump a 60%ish chance? In ‘16 Trump got a 30ish chance then Nate defended 30% as a “pretty likely occurrence” & “people mistake having a large volume of polling data for eliminating uncertainty” All this forecast says is: it’s close.

Why probabilistic forecasting is kinda bad!

This isn’t even a “bad day” for the Harris campaign. It’s a day with an unsatisfying national poll. She hasn’t had any sort of gaffe- or scandal-dominated news cycle yet.

July -> Late Aug/Sept nat’l poll shifts NYT: Trump +1 -> Trump +1 Quinnipiac: Trump +2 -> Harris +1 WSJ: Trump +2 -> Harris +1 Economist: Trump +3 -> Harris +2 Emerson: Trump +6 -> Harris +2 Morning Consult: Trump +2 -> Harris +3

Tonight’s dinner: burger cooked with chopped bacon, topped with cheddar, caramelized onion and homemade sloppy joe

One more notable thing about the July & Sept NYT polls I noted earlier today NYT/Sept is practically the only poll where Trump does better with men than Harris with women x.com/billscher/stat… This was also true in the NYT July poll. Each had Harris under 40 with men.

Looking forward to all the detailed analysis of the Harris and Trump policy website pages from those who complained Harris previously didn’t have one kamalaharris.com/issues/ donaldjtrump.com/platform

The reward for a widely shared post on X is a feed oversaturated with the absolute worst takes

Dems face tight timeline to confirm Biden-Harris judges, surpass Trump legacy foxnews.com/politics/dems-… #FoxNews