My big-picture view of how WI Sen Tammy Baldwin is positioned for re-election. Compared to fellow WI Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022, her poll ratings are much better, so less vulnerable in that key respect, but Johnson wasn't sharing a ticket with a president with neg. job ratings:

4 ways to slice Baldwin-Hovde WI Sen race in new Marquette MULawPoll
Registered voters: Baldwin up 44-37
After pushing undecideds, Baldwin up 52-47
Likely voters (who say they’re abs certain to vote):
Baldwin up 45-41
After pushing undecideds, it’s 50-50

In new mulawpoll, Biden-Trump numbers in WI little changed from late January:
Trump 51 Biden 49 among reg voters in 2-way race
Trump 41 Biden 40 RFK JR 13 in multi-candidate field

8 years ago in WI there were huge regional differences among GOP voters over Trump, who was far more popular in rural north than suburban south of Wisc. Those GOP schisms faded after 2016 election, but have widened again in the past yr, per MULawPoll
a WI polling dive:

a look at the 'enthusiasm gap' in WI:
Marquette Law MULawPoll has polled 30+ times on voting enthusiasm in
Wisconsin since 2014. Its last 2 polls (last fall and late January of this year) recorded the lowest levels ever of enthusiasm among Democratic voters:

New national MULawPoll has tracking of the 'double-negative' voters who are unfavorable to both Biden and Trump. 17% in Feb they've been around 20% since 2021.

How might these folks vote? and Who are they?
Link to the report: dropbox.com/scl/fi/6m6xni6…

My look at WI's new legislative maps, which barring more legal fighting would for the 1st time in decade-plus put both chambers in play, with one key exception: GOP would almost certainly hold state senate this fall because only 16 of 33 seats are up in 2024

my look at Mike Gallagher's WI congressional district, in light of his retirement announcement. Was a time when Northeast WI (Green Bay and northward) was a huge battleground House seat electing 3 Dems and 3 Reps from early 1970s to mid-2010s. That time is no longer:

The latest Wisconsin poll from Marquette bolsters the notion that both Biden and Trump are virtually unelectable, except when facing each other. Some thoughts about the numbers, including the huge gap between Biden v Trump in WI (tied) and Biden v Haley (Haley by 16) MULawPoll

In 50/50 Wisconsin, should a 'politically neutral' legislative map reflect GOP's 'natural' geographic advantage (because Dem vote is more concentrated) or aim for partisan parity? My look at the plans before the WI Supreme Court:

Not only does the Marquette Poll sit near the top of these ratings, but it is the most transparent of the top polls rated here, meaning (unlike many polls) MULawPoll is totally open about its methodology. No secret sauce!

I took a look back at the late Herb Kohl's dominant run as a WI candidate: 4 Senate wins, 3 by double digits, one (2006) by 38 points -- in 50/50 Wisconsin, and no defeats; the only major Dem to win Waukesha Co. in past 40 yrs. His 1st race in '88 was 1st WI election I covered:

In the WI polling, Biden's average pres approval numbers are worse than Trump's were, though Trump is more widely disliked today than Biden is (based on net favorability). My effort to take stock of Biden's polling numbers in tipping-point Wisconsin drawing on MULawPoll data:

“that Marquette poll might have told the most important story for the 2024 presidential election: The general election could very well come down to the “somewhat disapprovers” — the voters who say they somewhat disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job.”

nbcnews.com/meet-the-press…

Took a look in the battleground state of Wisconsin at the very different political fault lines over US aid to Ukraine and US aid to Israel, per the latest MULawPoll poll

Always enjoy talking to Henry Olsen about Wisconsin politics

MULaw and NYT polls in WI also track on views of Biden and Trump in WI:

Net Fav: (fav. rating minus unfav rating)
MULaw: Biden -14; Trump -24
NYT: Biden -16; Trump -25

Biden approval
MULaw: 42/57
NYT: 41/57

The MULaw and NYT WI polls show exactly what you’d expect in Biden-Trump matchup (tiny Biden lead) in a state that was a toss-up in 16 and 20, is 50/50 in party ID, where both men are deep under water, lots of discontent, but where GOP has struggled to get to 50% in the Trump Era

new MULawPoll in WI tracks closely with NYT/Siena poll of WI:
MULaw: Biden +2 v Trump NYT: Biden +2
MULaw: Biden -2 v DeSantis; NYT Biden -4
MULaw Biden -9 v Haley; NYT Biden -13

Could a third-party pres. candidate tip WI from 1 major party to the other in '24? Absolutely. But even in a state as close as WI, history shows why it's such an unlikely occurrence. My look at the math behind the presidential 'spoiler' effect: