When a #hurricane forms, the probability it reaches category 4 or 5 (>130 mph) is significantly increasing. Leveraging IBTrACS data from National Hurricane Center + JTWC courtesy of Philip Klotzbach /Colorado State University, we can see the proportion of Cat 4+5 hurricanes has doubled from 1980-2024.

In 2024, globally 21 out of 42 hurricanes reached category 4 or 5 status (50%). This is roughly average for the last 10 years. Note that in the 1980s, the average was closer to 25%. In other words, when a hurricane forms, there is a higher chance now that it gets to cat 4 + 5.

The drought monitor has been trending the wrong direction for southern #California but conditions were certainly not dire. However, these pre-existing dry conditions coupled with #SantaAna winds set up the #PalisadesFire. Dry, strong winds; dew point in #SantaMonica is -10 deg F

People (like myself) complain about how dry these cold days can be in the northeast. At ~4:50pm local time yesterday in #NYC, the temperature was 30, dew pt of 10 (deg F). #SantaMonica #CA at roughly the same time (local) was 68 and -12. NYC had ~3X more water in the atmosphere.

12Z models #FV3 #HRRR #GFS #WRF 48 hr #Snow forecasts all showing similar numbers for #NYC #NJ. Looking like 2-4 inches for NYC with #Brooklyn and #statenisland on the lower end and #Bronx at the higher end. Hudson valley and NW NJ could get over 6 inches. #NYCwx #NYwx

I never publicly comment on political matters because they are usually irrelevant to my work of providing hurricane data and forecasts to people in my personal capacity. Today though, it is highly relevant, and as a member of the meteorological community, I am angry. Planned or

Guy Carpenter has partnered with the Better Insurance Network to host a series of webinar events taking place on 26 and 27 March as part of the SUSTAIN Festival. Learn more and register here: bit.ly/3FiuwT7

I am excited to participate in FA Miami 2025 - Infinite Adaptation: The Code 15.15pm - 15.30pm ET on Wednesday 19th March: #Climate Risks: Adapting #Insurance Strategies for a Changing Environment #FintechAmericasMiami #FAMiami2025

At Fintech Americas Miami 2025, Kieran Bhatia, Climate and Sustainability Lead, North America, discussed how climate change is affecting both average weather conditions and weather volatility. bit.ly/4hEC548

Last chance! Guy Carpenter has partnered with the Better Insurance Network to host webinar events taking place on 26 and 27 March as part of the SUSTAIN Festival. Learn more and register here: bit.ly/3FiuwT7 Discussing #climate risks and #insurance in an hour!

The meteorology community does not really understand how bad things are going to get. And frankly, neither do I. science.org/content/articl…

Exclusive: National Science Foundation staff were told today that the agency’s 37 divisions—across all eight directorates—are being abolished and the number of programs within those divisions will be drastically reduced. scim.ag/3F9BeuO