Given that the decline in trust for colleges is concentrated among Republican voters, my simple theory is that it is the consequence of prolonged direct attacks on colleges by Republican leaders.

It's the usual story of elite cues driving citizens' opinion (see Zaller 1992).

Paul Skenes, the most anticipated pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, will make his MLB debut on Saturday.

NEW, from me: when The Daily Beast found Congressman Jamaal Bowman had promoted 9/11 conspiracies on his old blog, he insisted it was just a phase he went through in his mid-30s.
Well, we found his *active* *current* YouTube page, updated in April.
And, oh boy.
thedailybeast.com/squad-rep-jama…

This is a safely Democratic seat, so it won't matter in the end, but Republicans nominated a dead person in #IN07 .

Wow—a pillar of the Tea Party movement.

Today we're launching the 'Campaign Throwback' series on the 538 Politics podcast!

We're looking back at campaign tropes from past elections & asking where they came from, if they were true then & true now

In the first episode: 'It's the economy, stupid'
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fiv…

JUST IN: Voters in Michigan's Ottowa County recalled Lucy Ebel, a GOP county commissioner.

Ebel lost to a Democrat. (Recall driven by opposition to conservative votes, like her vote to repeal DEI department.)

Ebel is one of 4 GOP commissioners recalled in Michigan tonight.

Bacon faces a primary challenge on his right next week. #NE02

JUST IN: Three GOP county commissioners in Michigan's Delta County were just recalled.

One lost to a Democrat; 2 lost to indies.

Recalls were motivated by the firing of a county administrator, as well as incumbents' opposition to DEI, according to: miningjournal.net/news/2024/05/2…

Currently debating this on the 538 live blog! abcnews.go.com/538/live-updat…

The AP has called the #IN06 GOP primary for Jefferson Shreve, the more moderate candidate in the race. This is a safe R seat, so he's all but a congressman-elect.

This was expected, but the AP projects that leadership-supported Randy Niemeyer will be the GOP nominee against Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in #IN01 —Indiana's only swing seat.

The AP has called the #IN05 GOP primary for Rep. Victoria Spartz. Despite rescinding her retirement at the last minute, she holds on against Chuck Goodrich, 39–33%.

It's super close in #IN03 ! Here I explain why both Stutzman and Smith have reason for optimism: abcnews.go.com/538/live-updat…

The AP has called the #IN08 GOP primary for state Sen. Mark Messmer, AIPAC's preferred candidate. He defeats former Rep. John Hostettler, an isolationist who voted against aid to Israel and was supported by Rand Paul.

Marion County just reported about half of its #IN06 votes, and Shreve is winning there too—likely dooming the conservative candidate Speedy, who is from Marion. Overall it's Shreve 29%, Carrier 21%, Speedy 20%.

Geography holds a clue as to who will prevail in the #IN06 GOP primary (and therefore be the area's next congressman). abcnews.go.com/538/live-updat…

Sen. Mike Braun, per Eric Ostermeier, would be first sitting senator to be elected governor of any state since Sam Brownback won in Kansas in 2010. The gov-to-Senate switch is FAR more common. #INGOV smartpolitics.lib.umn.edu/2021/02/09/ret…