On the Ledge The "3 E's" and our negativity, Income and Investment, August Labor Demand Looks Weaker Still, Jackson Hole, Beyond Powell's speech youtu.be/7lZsgGhvdJk?si… via YouTube

JOLTS and Small Businesses The big drop in openings and downward revision was primarily attributable to small businesses - the ytd decline in openings is now 16% for firms with 1-49 employees (medium -16.8%, large -18.6%), last month it was reported as 6.7% - we postulated the

After this week’s data we might already be there, someone call the NBER committee Michael Green Anna Wong Becky Quick

Sustainable Disinversion Equities want 50, Crumbling Labor Market Foundation, Sustainable Disinversion, Recalibration Reconciliation youtu.be/KSA-Fsn4Bgw?si… via YouTube

Congressman Massie is the closest human to a founding father we have.

Excellent question, the board has Waller, with Bowman and Barr fighting over bank capital and no one else adding much to the process as far as I can tell.

No question on taxes, spending, the deficit or debt

Reflections on 9/11 , by Ironsides Macro open.substack.com/pub/ironsidesm…

I'll be talking the economy and markets with Charles V Payne on Fox Business at 2:10

Under Delivering Pre-pandemic inflation trends on steroids, FOMC preview, No debating excessive spending, Party like it's 1995 but not you banks youtu.be/VPaG4zAv2_4?si… via YouTube

I still want to know whatever happened to the discussion Chair Powell promised about the maturity profile of the balance sheet. Why are they reinvesting maturing USTs into longer maturities and not bills? Former Vice Chair Clarida dodged a question from Steve Liesman this morning

With Anna on this one, if you assume the same birth/death overestimation since March (first estimate of the annual benchmark revision), private sector job growth is 0.79%, in '90, '01 and '07 when it slowed below 1% recessions were underway or very close. The B/D correction

Worth reading this thread…

I’m next up with Kelly Evans

cnbc.com/video/2024/09/…

I’ll be on Bloomberg TV at 9:30 with Sonali Basak and Matt Miller

Long Policy Lags Recalibration or Recession, Long and Variable Lags, Policy Efficacy, 3 E's Outlook Remains Negative Long Policy Lags, by Ironsides Macro open.substack.com/pub/ironsidesm…

Labor Differential Getting Worse The Conference Board's September labor differential, jobs plentiful less hard to get, fell to 12.6% from a negatively revised 15.9% reading in August (16.4% first estimate). The level implies a 4.43% U3 unemployment rate and 8.17% U6

Winter’s coming, but unlike the NYC Game of Commuting in darkness with evil truckers it’s a good thing.