The Fed’s dot plot of rate projections shows an expected 25-bps cut in 2026 and another quarter-point reduction in 2027, the same as in December.

Oil’s recent pullback does little to ease stagflation risks, with prices still up nearly 80% this year, well above the peak for 2022, MLIV said. Elevated energy costs may weigh on growth and keep pressure on stocks and bonds.

The sudden erosion in the correlation between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 may be good news for tech stocks. Though the sector entered a correction this month, its decline was smaller than the broader index.

Citadel warned Mideast conflict is shifting from an inflation shock to a growth hit.There will be lasting damage to global supply chains, with shortages spreading beyond oil to LNG, helium & fertilizer. Once short-term IR stabilize, inflation-adj rates will flatten in the fwd mkt

US Treasury moves are signaling there’s no one way to price an energy shock, suggesting more volatility ahead for yield curves. Two-year yields have led increases across the curve, reflecting both reaction to war-driven oil spikes and reduced rate cut expectations.

Funds investing in energy-transition assets are riding out the panic gripping other corners of the private credit market. The fundamentals for the sector are stronger than they’ve been in decades, Brookfield’s Natalie Adomait said.

Investors ranging from short-term traders to BlackRock model portfolios are cutting exposure to EM assets, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF set for its biggest monthly outflow since September 2022.

Moody’s: PE-owned companies borrowed US$ 94bn in US leveraged loans and high-yield bonds last year to fund their own payouts. The dividend recapitalizations allow firms to cash in as exits become more difficult.

US stocks aren’t adequately pricing in economic risks, with the equity risk premium rising to 78 bps from 74 in February, according to MLIV. While tech stocks have become relatively cheaper, other sectors remain expensive, particularly energy stocks.

Investors wary of being wrong-footed by twists in the war are trading stocks at a record intensity — breaching a level Bloomberg Intelligence calls a “freak out” indicator 29 times this year.

Goldman kicks off bank earnings today after Wall Street’s worst start to a year since the regional banking crisis. The KBW Bank Index trades at 12 times forward earnings, a 40% discount to the S&P 500’s multiple of 20.

Apollo: Tech Valuations Back to Pre-AI Boom Levels. Tech valuations have compressed from 40x to 20x, and we are back at levels last seen before the AI boom began.

The oil price shock is expected to push global inflation to 4.2% in the fourth quarter, up from 3.1% a year earlier, according to Bloomberg Economics. Advanced economies may see inflation peak around 3.4%.

Emerging-market debt is roaring back.Sales of dollar- and euro-denominated bonds from developing nations this month are already running some 200% above the volumes seen last April, as yield-hungry investors dive back into risk.

Apollo: Inflation's Drag on Public Markets. Periods of higher inflation are associated with weaker returns in the S&P 500 and the IG and HY indexes, consistent with a policy backdrop of elevated interest rates that restrain risk-taking.