To tack on to my previous retweet, while Mosler's analysis of the natural rate (and other topics) is often compelling, I disagree with many MMT policy prescriptions, including guaranteed employment...

We’re at 90% probability of a rate hike. If proven to be true, this would mark a first time the market strong arms the Fed to tighten. @Quillintel (((The Daily Shot)))

So true.

wsj.com/articles/indiv…

There are so many interesting stories out there about various shortages and bottlenecks in the face of intense demand. Just a totally fresh and unfamilar environment for so many players.

More on fiscal backfire “This apparent labor shortage persists, it will have huge implications for the economy in 2021 & beyond. It could act as a brake on growth & cause unnecessary business failures, long lines at remaining businesses, & rising prices” nytimes.com/2021/04/16/ups…

This is a terrific piece by Lisa Abramowicz. $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus in the U.S. alone. Moral hazard anyone?

Rolling 60d correlation between 10y Treasury yield & S&P 500 in negative territory & near lowest since mid-2000s; coincides with higher CPI, which has happened in past (although we didn’t have high inflation in mid-90s when correlation was negative)

Buried on page B15 of the WSJ is the article that everyone wants to be well hidden but actually should be the front-cover story: wsj.com/articles/tesla…

For 5 quarters now the state of the US economy by conventional analysis has been indecipherable due to all the government/Fed “emergency” measures. Seems there is no “emergency” any more, but will these measures end as planned? It’s the question of the year w/ huge implications.

U.S. households added $13.5 trillion in wealth last year, the biggest increase in records going back three decades. More than 70% of the increase went to the top 20% of income earners. About a third went to the top 1%. wsj.com/articles/durin…

U.S. wages are picking up more than in the recent past, but still not enough to keep up with inflation. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The most important data point in today’s jobs report was not the headline but rather the contraction in the workweek and the repeated decline in real wages. Look out for a sharp weakening in Q3 GDP growth and likely beyond. Treasuries have sniffed this out ahead of everyone else.

Lumber prices dropped for a 9th straight week amid slowing DIY spending. Even with the pullback in prices, lumber is still up ~70% from mid-2019. Inflation kills demand... then prices fall. That's why inflation is almost always transitory. #inflation markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/ne…

David Rosenberg This is how inflation becomes embedded, David, not evenly and all at once, but as a rolling series of “shocks” across different goods and services.

This is a log-scale chart starting around the the low that followed a near-20% drop in late 2018. Annualized S&P gain since end of 2018 now almost 25%. Not outrageous - it's a bull market after all - yet clearly running against the pre-Covid crash rally trend line.

Fed chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference at the end of the meeting on Wednesday evening. "We expect Jay Powell to reiterate that the tapering discussion is underway, but that it’s too soon to reveal a specific date." theguardian.com/business/live/…

“Thirty-seven ships were anchored awaiting berth space outside the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, as of late Sunday, the most since early February.” U.S. Container-Ship Bottleneck Lurches Near Its February Record bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Nothing says "unhealthy" like a leadership reversal within a day of the high. Last time we saw more new lows than highs within a day of a 5-year high, with at least 30% of stocks below their 200-DMA, was 9/20/18 just before the Q4 swoon. The two before that were 2007 and 2000.

Amazing conversation with The Megyn Kelly Show about the stifling of dissent, free speech, and how kids have been harmed during the last 2 years. Thank you for having me! Very grateful. Top Exec Resigns, Turns Down $1 Million to Speak Freely on COVID Hypo... youtu.be/54pw49TVN4A