The campaign is now a battle between two incumbents, battling to grab the mantle of change. More specifically, to label themselves as agents of “good” change and their opponent an example of “bad” change. Now🔓 cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

Who’s the Change Candidate Now? “Harris’ Thursday night speech, unlike Donald Trump’s RNC performance, was designed for swing voters instead of just the base.” Now comes the hard part, getting those votes. My take from Chicago. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

“CSPAN don’t play..CSPAN does the research” Cc: Howard Mortman

Lots of ratings shifts today at Cook Political Report: Amy Walter Electoral College moves: #NC Lean R --> Toss Up #MN & #NH Lean D --> Likely D cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio… And two shifts from me in our Governors ratings #NCGov Toss Up --> Lean D #WAGov Lean D --> Likely D

NC & GA both Toss Ups. But NC has been tougher get for D’s. Why? Black electorate in NC smaller than GA (20% vs. 29%), & in NC 45% electorate is white, non-college vs. 38% in GA. NC also more rural and small-town: Atlanta metro area makes up nearly 60% of the GA’s vote, the

Biden did better w/ white non-college in NC (-43) than GA (-59) as well as w/ white college in NC than GA (-6) vs. (-23).

If Trump hates him, Dems think he must be doing “something” right…

S. Florida and Northern Alaska..basically the same…

I assume you already knew this, Geoff Garin !

This is a niche on top of a niche tweet!

Ahem… despite what you may have heard … cc: Jonathan Martin Liesl Hickey

Don’t make us have to tap this sign…

The Sept. 10 debate will be another “reset” for the 2024 campaign. There’s little chance that voters’ opinions of Trump will change. Instead, the big question is whether it impacts the way voters perceive Harris. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

The fact that the debate is taking place at a time when many voters don’t have a firm opinion/idea of Harris makes this a uniquely consequential fall showdown. Polling up until then is benchmark in which to compare movement post-debate. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

Six races move toward D’s; two toward R’s.

Based on how aggressive Harris has been from the get-go, you’d be surprised to know that Trump is not the incumbent.

Dems have long argued that the key to winning in ‘24 is to make the election a referendum on Trump. Biden was unable to do this. Last night, Harris, with an assist from Trump did. Whether this can hold for the next 50+ days is the key Q. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…

Is there any worse airport to downtown commute than O’Hare to Chicago Loop? Maybe Hartsfield to Atlanta or SFO to San Francisco, but ORD -Loop has to be the most consistent bumper-bumper traffic of any other route.

This Pew slide is excellent American politics explainer. Btwn11/20 and now a lot has happened: Dobbs, Jan 6th, 40-year high inflation; last minute switch at top of Dem ticket, etc. YET, 90+% of ‘20 voters are voting for same candidate in ‘24 they voted for in ‘20.