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The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. Lessons for US policy on decoupling from China. My latest for Foreign Policy

Cleaning up some old papers and came across this 1986 CIA report. Nearly 4 decades on, economic deterioration, Supreme Leader's health, vulnerability to air strikes, fears of popular backlash and pursuit of ideological goals backing the IRI into a corner strike a familiar chord.

Good 🧵 👇🏻

Iran's deputy foreign minister & nuclear negotiator Kazem Gharibabadi briefed us today in NY on a range of issues from return to nuclear negotiations with Washington to upcoming talks w/E3 & damages to nuke sites. nytimes.com/2025/07/23/wor…

New Amnesty International press release: Iranian forces’ use of cluster munitions in populated residential areas of Israel during the ‘12 Day War’ endangered civilians and was a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law. amnesty.org/en/latest/news…

Europeans to test Iran's appetite for nuclear compromise as sanctions loom - reuters.com/world/europe/e…

🔹 دکتر صالحی: حتی در زمان شهید امیرعبداللهیان داشتیم به توافق میرسیدیم، ولی گویا یکی از #دوستان مانع شد! 🔹وجود یک کمیته جانبی در مذاکرات، چه ضرورتی دارد؟ از عراقچی بیشتر در جریانند؟ #برای_عزت_ایران

"Achieving this requires credible diplomatic engagement, full cooperation with the IAEA, and addressing our concerns regarding the stockpile." Reminder E3 and EU political director meet Iran DFMs tomorrow in Istanbul. -4-

This is what Rafael Mariano Grossi said today on timing of a delegation to #Iran: "no exact date" yet for the delegation. And he laid out a process which sounds to me as if it would take quite some time to get inspectors back...-1-

#Iran & E3/EU talks in Istanbul have concluded. DepFM Gharibabadi described the discussions as “serious, frank, and detailed”. He says both sides came with “specific ideas, the various aspects of which were examined”. Talks to continue in future.

A decade after its landmark deal, Europe faces a defining test in Iran politico.eu/article/europe…

Last bit of that is important. There was a sense from Euro diplos until as recently as yesterday that Iran seemed uninterested in any extension. Today that seems to have shifted. Not rejected. Seems to imply a discussion around what that may involve. So a little shift there.-2-

NEW STATEMENT | Open the Gates to Save a Starving Gaza Gaza is tipping from mass starvation toward mass death. Israel must allow assistance in immediately. The strip needs both an end to Israel’s siege and a ceasefire, urgently. crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…

Iran is facing a deepening water crisis that has forced authorities to impose widespread water cuts, with dam reservoirs across the country dropping to their lowest levels in decades. The shortages are disrupting daily life for millions. By Kian Sharifi rferl.org/a/farda-briefi…

"Had Iran fired a few more large volleys of missiles, Israel could have exhausted its supply of top-tier Arrow 3 munitions, one of the U.S. officials said." wsj.com/world/israel-i…

A European official confirms Europe is offering Iran a delay on snapback if Iran resumes diplomacy with the US, cooperates fully with the IAEA, and reveals the location of its highly enriched uranium. A senior administration official says, "we are coordinated with the E3."

E3 and EU PDs met Iranian DFMs to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme. E3 are ready to trigger snapback, however we offered a snapback extension should Iran meet their legal obligations and specific criteria. We urge Iran to choose the path of diplomacy.

Took part in this important meeting yesterday on behalf of the EU High Representative as coordinator and in support of a solid, urgent, diplomatic and transparent solution to Iran’s nuclear programme.

Five killed in courthouse attack in Iran's Sistan-Baluchestan province, Iranian media report - reuters.com/world/middle-e…

Dry Taps, Empty Lakes, Shuttered Cities: A Water Crisis Batters Iran nytimes.com/2025/07/26/wor…