Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile
Alexey Egorov

@alexeyyegorov

Grain market analyst. All views are my own.

ID: 994924968491323392

calendar_today11-05-2018 12:59:32

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Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Temperatures -20-25°C in Central Russia (which were OK in general for crops amid high snow cover) will be replaced by 0+6°C with rains. There is a threat of snow melting and ice layer appearance - additional risks for crops, especially if frosts will be back.

Temperatures -20-25°C in Central Russia (which were OK in general for crops amid high snow cover) will be replaced by 0+6°C with rains. There is a threat of snow melting and ice layer appearance - additional risks for crops, especially if frosts will be back.
RUSGRAIN UNION (@rusgrain) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🇷🇺1/04 - start of grain export reporting system and calculation of market benchmarks 2/06 - floating duty within quota comes into effect, calculated as (Market Benchmark - Base Export Price) *70%. Weekly recount. 01/07 - floating duty continues without being tied to quota #oatt

Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Roshydrometcenter estimates the share of winter sowings in bad condition (sparsity more than 50%) in Russia as 7-9% vs. 22% in November. Abundant winter precipitation was efficient for crops, especially for the South.

Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Most of forecasters have set 2021 Russian wheat crop at 78-80 mmt (third historical result). Rusagrotrans 78.9 mmt Sovecon 79.3 mmt IKAR 79.8 mmt ProZerno 78.3 mmt IGC - 76.9 mmt (w/o Crimea 0.6-1 mmt). I've also heard about two forecasts 80+. USDA is publishing figures in May.

Most of forecasters have set 2021 Russian wheat crop at 78-80 mmt (third historical result).
Rusagrotrans 78.9 mmt
Sovecon 79.3 mmt 
IKAR 79.8 mmt
ProZerno 78.3 mmt
IGC - 76.9 mmt (w/o Crimea 0.6-1 mmt).
I've also heard about two forecasts 80+.
USDA is publishing figures in May.
Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The weather in Ural and Volga will be abnormally hot (up to +30+34C) and dry in the next 2 weeks. Ural and the esatern part of Volga are ALREADY too dry and is going to be drier. Bad conditions, especially for spring crops.

The weather in Ural and Volga will be abnormally hot (up to +30+34C) and dry in the next 2 weeks. Ural and the esatern part of Volga are ALREADY too dry and is going to be drier. Bad conditions, especially for spring crops.
Alexey Egorov (@alexeyyegorov) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Great graph. If 10% of area is unsown, the crop could be cut by 1.5-1.7 mmt (May USDA 47.05 mmt, Refinitive decreased by 1.7 mmt to 46 mmt). The weather remains wet so far.