Meanwhile in Paris EUR 235.75/t 😕

Temperatures -20-25°C in Central Russia (which were OK in general for crops amid high snow cover) will be replaced by 0+6°C with rains. There is a threat of snow melting and ice layer appearance - additional risks for crops, especially if frosts will be back.

The official document about export duties for Russian grains in 2020/21 is published. government.ru/docs/41387/

🇷🇺1/04 - start of grain export reporting system and calculation of market benchmarks 2/06 - floating duty within quota comes into effect, calculated as (Market Benchmark - Base Export Price) *70%. Weekly recount. 01/07 - floating duty continues without being tied to quota #oatt

Russian wheat producers be like

Roshydrometcenter estimates the share of winter sowings in bad condition (sparsity more than 50%) in Russia as 7-9% vs. 22% in November. Abundant winter precipitation was efficient for crops, especially for the South.

Most of forecasters have set 2021 Russian wheat crop at 78-80 mmt (third historical result). Rusagrotrans 78.9 mmt Sovecon 79.3 mmt IKAR 79.8 mmt ProZerno 78.3 mmt IGC - 76.9 mmt (w/o Crimea 0.6-1 mmt). I've also heard about two forecasts 80+. USDA is publishing figures in May.

USDA: the forecast of 2021 Russian wheat crop - 85 mmt. Russian market:

The weather in Ural and Volga will be abnormally hot (up to +30+34C) and dry in the next 2 weeks. Ural and the esatern part of Volga are ALREADY too dry and is going to be drier. Bad conditions, especially for spring crops.

Russian AgMin to forecast 2021 wheat crop 80.7 mmt. Fair estimate. interfax.ru/business/768096

Hot (+30+36С) and dry weather is going on the South of Russia. Wheat harvesting is almost done, but corn will get damage.

Ruble is weakening to April level amid falling oil and new strain of covid.

Great graph. If 10% of area is unsown, the crop could be cut by 1.5-1.7 mmt (May USDA 47.05 mmt, Refinitive decreased by 1.7 mmt to 46 mmt). The weather remains wet so far.

The new forecast of Ru wheat crop is 92.7 mmt thanks to rainy summer and high sown area. поле.рф/journal/public…