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BBB describes the US fiscal situation in more ways than one; Torsten Slok at Apollo notes that "The US sovereign CDS spread is currently trading at levels similar to countries that are rated BBB+, such as Italy and Greece". apolloacademy.com/the-daily-spar…

"Even if the words coming out of Edwards' mouth were gloomy, the famously bearish Société Générale strategist was in his usual good mood... "I'm quite a happy, upbeat person, as opposed to the miserable bastard I come across in my written work." archive.ph/wqoib

Albert Edwards "fiscal dysentery" - I like this a lot. I prefer to use fiscal gaping holes though 😆😆😆

Remember the 2022 most predicted recession in history - that never happened? Well maybe its happening now! Long and variable lags? H/T Daily Chartbook

Investors say they are extremely negative on the US$. Is dollar negativity now in the price and vulnerable to upside surprises? H/T Macro Charts via Daily Chartbook

An Iranian man left this comment on my YouTube channel. It's the single best explanation I've ever heard on the future of #Iran 👇 As an Iranian, I can tell you the situation is no longer just political—it's existential. We are trapped between two collapsing structures: one

Very topical ! telegraph.co.uk/news/0/matt-ca…

FT online lead story today...After the blow-up in Japan's long end, we see investor anxiety about excess fiscal deficits on both sides of the Pacific. Issuing less long bonds and more bills is simply re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic Read here - archive.ph/NxBhC

. John Authers writes about Republican opinion turning against the corporate excesses of recent years, particularly corporate Greedflation (or profits-led inflation as polite people call it), which was a primary driver of the 2022 inflation surge. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

.Rachel Reeves self imposed, arbitrary fiscal strait jacket has tightened with recent U turns. The easy way to escape is do what Germany just did, and declare that due to 'the emergency', defence spending above 1% is now outside of the fiscal rules. theguardian.com/world/2025/mar…

What is happening in the west? An aging population was already putting a strain on government finances, but the surge in the working age population signed off sick with mental health issues, especially among the young, will smash the perilous fiscal arithmetic to smithereens.

There's bad breadth and really bad breadth. The ATH has been hit with the worst breath ever, by miles. The halitosis is so bad it honks to high heaven. H/T BoA via zerohedge zerohedge.com/markets/worst-…

Old(er) UK men are apparently getting the bit between their teeth, in response to the demographic time-bomb with births to over-60s fathers up 14%. My kids are now 36 and 33 and despite this latest trend, I'm not doing any more for King and country! bbc.com/news/articles/…

Recessions typically begin only once the construction sector has turned down from record levels of activity. That has now happened. Are long and variable lags from high interest rates now finally beginning to bite? H/T Yardeni Research via Daily Chartbook

On this July 4 celebration and in the wake of President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" being passed in Congress, it may be useful to think about economic incentives. Hence the lead story in the local French newspaper today caught my eye: 'Give blood and get a Catalan sausage '!

UAE, the US and Italy are tops for attracting millionaires. By contrast, the bottom 3 are India, China and worst of all by a mile is the UK - because of tax changes to non-dom status. Despite this, Labour's latest idea to raise more revenue is a wealth tax. Genius!

"I have always exhorted clients to keep a close eye on Japan. Major financial events often happen first in Japan." (Albert Edwards) Albert Edwards

Talk about the burying your head in the sand! My former colleague points out that the BoE can't bring itself to say that the Gilt sell-off is primarily due to our own fiscal mess. I wonder what the increasingly irritated the bond vigilantes will make of their nonsense!