Just published on APSR First View: "Misinformation and Support for Vigilantism: An Experiment in India and Pakistan" by Sumitra Badrinathan, Simon Chauchard, and Niloufer Siddiqui. cambridge.org/core/journals/…

I have made the same decision in 2024

Apropos of absolutely nothing, here is my new paper about how instrumental variables used to study colonial impact are often historically inaccurate. nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…

New in JHPE: Ajay Verghese argues that it is unclear that “randomized controlled history” can make more credible causal inferences than a selection on observables approach. nowpublishers.com/article/Detail…

Why are the questions I've seen from the people in this town hall — a farmer, a construction worker — considerably more straightforward and unafraid than any one I've seen from any debate moderator in this election cycle?

Sitting and standing all day are both bad, which leaves lying down as the best option, which is what I’ve been saying for years.

The Standard Errors of Persistence Timothy G. Conley and Morgan Kelly Forthcoming at 𝗝𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 Let's just say some "famous" papers in the persistence literature out there are not surviving well the test of time... 👇

Live shot of me as winter approaches in Vermont

Apologies in advance for the certain upcoming international incident

Is this good? From the Addison Independent.

Yeah it's the price tag that bothers me most

WTF

Polling humor from the New Yorker

This critique is worth reading. It provokes important questions on the status of history and use of secondary historical sources in economic research. The concerns raised apply not only to AJR but the field of historical political economy more generally. on.ft.com/4f844Iv

Tense times. So enjoy a photo of my commute home.

Yes we should teach social science undergrads and grads about causal inference, but really we need to start with babies. "You hit me, you get a timeout. If X then Y. What do you not understand about this?"

For the first time since WWII, every governing party facing election in a developed country this year lost vote share, via John Burn-Murdoch 2024 Democrats are the red dot. Absolutely critical context to any postmortem.

Like clockwork, commentators interpret elections as ideological mandates. Trump wins, so voters hate progressives and want conservatism. Here's why that's wrong. 1) It doesn't help explain why parties *of all ideologies* lost vote share post-COVID.