Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile
Andrew Austin-Adler

@adler_andrew1

Meteorology student specializing with Tropical Cyclones.

ID: 1902107716484472832

calendar_today18-03-2025 21:20:18

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Michael Ferragamo (@ferragamowx) 's Twitter Profile Photo

With no expected development within the next week, here's where our early season activity compares to the last 5 years. The 3rd named storm in the Atlantic typically forms on August 3rd (1991-2020 average). The season is still ahead of schedule despite a slower start compared to

With no expected development within the next week, here's where our early season activity compares to the last 5 years.

The 3rd named storm in the Atlantic typically forms on August 3rd (1991-2020 average). The season is still ahead of schedule despite a slower start compared to
Sam Brandt (@sambrandt99) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Thermal wind balance is an incredibly important concept in meteorology. I have put together an animation to explain how it works visually.

Andy Hazelton (@andyhazelton) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Guessing part of the reason this area is so large is because there's uncertainty where something might consolidate, if it does. Also, today models have trended towards a cutoff trough breaking the ridge, which could turn this to the north. Would be fortunate to get an early

Guessing part of the reason this area is so large is because there's uncertainty where something might consolidate, if it does. Also, today models have trended towards a cutoff trough breaking the ridge, which could turn this to the north. Would be fortunate to get an early
Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

A fairly recent ASCAT pass over #95L reveals a broad and elongated surface circulation. Still appears associated with a decaying frontal boundary though, and if it maintains adequate convection, TCG should occur as it detaches later today. NHC has 40%

Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Very deep central convection is occurring over #95L’s nascent surface circulation. As the vortex continues to deepen and be vertically stretched we should see it detach from the nearby front, at which time it will probably meet the requirements for a tropical cyclone.

Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The Atlantic is lighting up with development chances as we begin August, now with three formation areas. If all three are successful, we could have Fernand by mid-month.

The Atlantic is lighting up with development chances as we begin August, now with three formation areas.

If all three are successful, we could have Fernand by mid-month.
Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

If the vortex manages to stay-off shore, the intensity ceiling would be decently high with a fair upper air pattern, light steering flow at the surface and anomalously warm gulf stream waters. Models do have difficulty resolving these type of systems, as we are observing right

Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#95L is looking pretty TC-Like this evening with a curved band structure becoming apparent along with increasingly expansive anticyclonic outflow aloft. Somewhat organized convection has sustained for the better part of a day now, which meets the conventional requirements for TC

Joey Peddle (@joeyp239) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Unlike cold and warm fronts, stationary fronts frequently lack sharp thermal gradients and can exhibit irregular, quasi-linear orientations. This often results in more diffuse boundaries that are harder to identify, particularly in the absence of strong synoptic forcing #tropics

Unlike cold and warm fronts, stationary fronts frequently lack sharp thermal gradients and can exhibit irregular, quasi-linear orientations. This often results in more diffuse boundaries that are harder to identify, particularly in the absence of strong synoptic forcing #tropics
Kacper (@kacperwx) 's Twitter Profile Photo

#95L has likely successfully detached from the stationary front it was previously settled along, while exhibiting a clear curved band structure that's managed to wrap a decent way. However, a SSMIS (lucky to still have it) overpass image does suggest notable tilt through height.

#95L has likely successfully detached from the stationary front it was previously settled along, while exhibiting a clear curved band structure that's managed to wrap a decent way. However, a SSMIS (lucky to still have it) overpass image does suggest notable tilt through height.
Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The most recent GFS run has come way down from its bullish solutions over the last few cycles. The main culprit is the strengthening and closer positioning of an upper level low to north, which would keep the wave axis devoid of convection in the short term. It should be noted

Andy Hazelton (@andyhazelton) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One thing about the waves out in the Atlantic right now is it looks like the environment is less favorable than the medium range forecasts anticipate - the model signal keeps dropping off as the waves move off of Africa. We've seen this happen several times in August the last

Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

As of the last advisory, dexter has now generated 0.64 ACE units. This brings the seasonal total up to a measly 2.1. While storm frequency this season is above average, nearly all tropical cyclones have been short-lived and weak, originating primarily from non-tropical systems.

As of the last advisory, dexter has now generated 0.64 ACE units. This brings the seasonal total up to a measly 2.1.

While storm frequency this season is above average, nearly all tropical cyclones have been short-lived and weak, originating primarily from non-tropical systems.
Andrew Austin-Adler (@adler_andrew1) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The EPS continues to show a rather active AEW train in the MDR/Tropical Atlantic as we head deeper into August. Currently, most of the waves that were projected to develop by this Ensemble suite have failed given the background hostility in this region. Notably, we will observe

The EPS continues to show a rather active AEW train in the MDR/Tropical Atlantic as we head deeper into August. Currently, most of the waves that were projected to develop by this Ensemble suite have failed given the background hostility in this region.

Notably, we will observe