With no expected development within the next week, here's where our early season activity compares to the last 5 years. The 3rd named storm in the Atlantic typically forms on August 3rd (1991-2020 average). The season is still ahead of schedule despite a slower start compared to

Thermal wind balance is an incredibly important concept in meteorology. I have put together an animation to explain how it works visually.

This has to be among the spatially largest development areas I’ve ever seen.

Guessing part of the reason this area is so large is because there's uncertainty where something might consolidate, if it does. Also, today models have trended towards a cutoff trough breaking the ridge, which could turn this to the north. Would be fortunate to get an early

#95L has now formed in the Atlantic, being our AOI right off the east coast. No land impacts are expected as this system should move out to sea, and could become a Tropical Storm over the next day or so.

A fairly recent ASCAT pass over #95L reveals a broad and elongated surface circulation. Still appears associated with a decaying frontal boundary though, and if it maintains adequate convection, TCG should occur as it detaches later today. NHC has 40%

Very deep central convection is occurring over #95L’s nascent surface circulation. As the vortex continues to deepen and be vertically stretched we should see it detach from the nearby front, at which time it will probably meet the requirements for a tropical cyclone.

The Atlantic is lighting up with development chances as we begin August, now with three formation areas. If all three are successful, we could have Fernand by mid-month.

If the vortex manages to stay-off shore, the intensity ceiling would be decently high with a fair upper air pattern, light steering flow at the surface and anomalously warm gulf stream waters. Models do have difficulty resolving these type of systems, as we are observing right

#95L is looking pretty TC-Like this evening with a curved band structure becoming apparent along with increasingly expansive anticyclonic outflow aloft. Somewhat organized convection has sustained for the better part of a day now, which meets the conventional requirements for TC

Unlike cold and warm fronts, stationary fronts frequently lack sharp thermal gradients and can exhibit irregular, quasi-linear orientations. This often results in more diffuse boundaries that are harder to identify, particularly in the absence of strong synoptic forcing #tropics

#95L has likely successfully detached from the stationary front it was previously settled along, while exhibiting a clear curved band structure that's managed to wrap a decent way. However, a SSMIS (lucky to still have it) overpass image does suggest notable tilt through height.

Seems like we will likely be getting Tropical Storm Dexter at the 11pm EDT NHC advisory. #tropics #dexter #wxtwitter

The 4th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has now formed. On average, the “D” storm forms on August 15.

The most recent GFS run has come way down from its bullish solutions over the last few cycles. The main culprit is the strengthening and closer positioning of an upper level low to north, which would keep the wave axis devoid of convection in the short term. It should be noted

One thing about the waves out in the Atlantic right now is it looks like the environment is less favorable than the medium range forecasts anticipate - the model signal keeps dropping off as the waves move off of Africa. We've seen this happen several times in August the last

As of the last advisory, dexter has now generated 0.64 ACE units. This brings the seasonal total up to a measly 2.1. While storm frequency this season is above average, nearly all tropical cyclones have been short-lived and weak, originating primarily from non-tropical systems.

The EPS continues to show a rather active AEW train in the MDR/Tropical Atlantic as we head deeper into August. Currently, most of the waves that were projected to develop by this Ensemble suite have failed given the background hostility in this region. Notably, we will observe