William Preston Smythe πŸ‘» (@a_p_capital) 's Twitter Profile
William Preston Smythe πŸ‘»

@a_p_capital

Founder/CIO @ Alpha Prime Capital, @MIT (Master of Finance) @CWRU (BA Economics, BSE Material Engineering), CFA Miami executive board, CFP, DJing, rugby, poker

ID: 1199329911997120512

linkhttp://AlphaPrimeCapital.com calendar_today26-11-2019 14:11:55

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William Preston Smythe πŸ‘» (@a_p_capital) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Still see this as not priced in. Trump freaking out over Canada posting a video of Reagan and traditional conservative values shows how afraid he is of the ruling. The conservatives he padded the Supreme Court with are Reagan and not MAGA. $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM

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$FI at 70 is absurd. Down 45% on guiding down earnings 15% vs. consensus. Seen stocks go down less on accounting fraud charges. 8x 2025 earnings with management stating the company is expected to return to double-digit earnings growth 2nd half 2026 after a period of investment.

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Value out of favor as much as ever. $CMCSA trading at 5x FCF. $NVDA trading at 50x next year's FCF, which is likely peak earnings and set to fall. Market would rather chase something that would take 50 years to buy back its shares over something that would take 5. Interesting how

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Biggest issue with markets. Tech stocks like $PLTR being valued based off of its expected earnings 10 years out. Rest of the market is not. If valuing everything on earnings 10 years out (should not), despite $SPX being very expensive historically, it should be 20k, not 6,800.

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No one is pricing in tariffs being ruled unconstitutional. Clearly, Trump's moves were illegal, but let's see what the ruling is in a few months. Essentially a free call option on consumer discretionary stocks that have been destroyed. Jump in margins and improved balance sheets.

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New monthly client letter released that I don't usually share. Can only access the letter and accompanying Excel file through the link on the APC website here: alphaprimecapital.com/alpha-strategy $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $TLT

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If you have questions like why did $PLTR and other meme stocks go parabolic, what is going on in the world and capital markets $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM $TLT, will my value stocks ever stop going down, I try to answer them all in this letter.

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Most trade above 10% FCF yield with expected FCF growth in the future, reducing share count. For reference, $NVDA has less than a 2% FCF yield today and is likely to top out under 4% using 2027 estimates before declining as $MSFT $META $GOOG $AMZN spend will slow dramatically.

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$AMD up significantly recently. Anyone buying $AMD is buying a 1% FCF yield currently and what is estimated to be a 3% FCF in 2027 at peak cycle. A terrible fundamental investment, but in a gamified momentum story market, "Look at Lisa on the TV! BUY!" is the main driver for now.

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Tons of deals out there. $JD beat across the board yesterday, stock down. EV of 31B with 4.7B of FCF (15% FCF yield) this year, expected to grow to 7B FCF (over 23% FCF yield) in 2027. Honestly haven't ever seen bargains like this ever while having an expensive overall market.