Whispers: It’s true. Just submitted a research paper around ERCOT and it was such a beautiful pain — every time we recalibrated the model we had to update the major updates in storage and renewables. They were literally lapping our math.

“It will never stop being amazing to me that the long journey toward inventing the GLP1 drug category got an assist from looking into the Gila monster’s mouth and stealing its saliva. Never listen to people who criticize weird science projects. Weird science is great science.”

Payrolls grew a robust +147k in June, and the unemployment rate fell a tick to 4.1%. Revisions are also small but positive. The economy is looking like the little engine that could, huffing and puffing up that hill.

Strong case for industrial policy by Autor and Handson, to combat China shock 2.0 I suspect this is the beginning of a new wave of economics on the design and implementation of industrial policy nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opi…

This seems like the big headline. Those two strong post-tariff jobs reports may have been a total mirage

It's extremely hard. Private payroll data is not designed to be nationally representative. It's not designed to be cross-compatible across firms, e.g. with harmonized industry definitions. It's not designed to account for firm birth/death. Because none of that is their job.

Funny thing about criticism of the BLS is that US data sources are light years better than any other govt. Go use EuroStat, China's NBS or Japan's SBJ. They're garbage compared to the BLS, FRED or other US GOVT sources. Hot garbage.

ChatGPT says FRED would be a unicorn if it was a pvt sector company. 🤷‍♂️

Data revisions are a normal, necessary part of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy in real time. They can also be jarring, especially for people who don't obsessively scrutinize every jobs report. So I dug into the how and why of revisions. A few big takeaways:

Normal people: how horrible! Economists:

Simple economics is damn good at making real-world predictions. Yet, if you only read oped columns, you’d think economics was a failure. Our models are too abstract. Our predictions are always wrong. I push back in the Wall Street Journal Opinion 👇

AI leaders should spend more energy reckoning with this fact. A generation of kids is losing their best opportunity to learn how to read, write, and think, and they will pay the price for their whole lives. It’s not every student. Some students are becoming more empowered and

The US has now lost 78K manufacturing jobs this year bloomberg.com/news/live-blog…

Increases in both youth and black unemployment (now at 7.5%, the highest since October ‘21) suggests that the crackdown on immigration has not created a more favorable job market for the more vulnerable components of the US labor force.

Poland is a member of the EU and Schengen area. It has literally open borders and literally no customs duties.

Her boy started his college football career as a junior college walk-on and nearly quit to become a firefighter. Now he’s the starter at Tennessee. Cry away. Your boy bet on himself and won.

If you run down the (moronically flawed) economic assumption behind this policy... it does **not** end with NaTiVe WoRkErS gEtTiNg FiNalLy HiReD It ends with the lead investor backing out and no jobs at all. Factory shuttered. Future projects done. Economic impacts? vaporized

Would you say that corporate or income tax makes billions for the US?

Reuters: A loan estimate for an Atlanta home purchased by Fed governor Lisa Cook, shows that Cook had declared the property as a “vacation home,” according to a document reviewed by Reuters. The document, dated May 28, 2021, was issued to Cook by her credit union in the weeks

We’re being played. Social media algorithms and America’s friendship deficit push people to impulsively post emotion-driven thoughts online. Careers ruined. Hoodwinked and duped, all for strangers’ approval. Rant to your friends, not the world.