Cuellar needs to resign. This isn’t the first time he has been a target of a federal investigation. Why?

• it’s the right thing to do

• special election would help fill seat with a Dem incumbent before Nov

•gauge how well Dems are doing in the Rio Grande Valley before Nov

Polls are a snapshot in time & right now they show Trump winning the Electoral College

But it’s closer than many realize

Biden is only down 1-3 pts in MI/PA/WI per 538 avgs

That’s well within normal polling error range/striking distance 6 months out

If he only holds those 3:

Let me be clear folks.

There is no universe in which NV-01, NV-03, and NV-04 are rated Likely Dem, but Biden only wins the Hispanic vote by D+15.

Those seats were drawn to share the Hispanic vote around three seats to shore up the margins.

In 2020, Biden did *better* in places that had BLM protests, on average. Here's a graph from our book and see the papers Jake links to below.

I agree too that there's no easy way for a certain answer but this evidence deserves more attention than it gets.

Please pick JD Vance. I would be so owned as a lib

Twitter Circle

You're objectively rich as hell compared to anyone who lived before 1800, you have more rights than you even use, you live in a society who's institutions work and all it asks from you is that you give a shit in preserving it and engage in meaningful political activity to do so.

The thing about 'lets punish Democrats and make them change!' is that it already happened in 2016

Good news: party moved left, suburbs got more liberal, DSA is relevant

Bad news: abortion is illegal in half the country, 40% of Americans are in a death cult for a reality TV host

My honest answer — 2016 radicalized me into becoming a pragmatist.

My primary ideology became defeating as many Rs as possible rather than needing my president/party to align with my views on every single issue.

And I have zero patience for anyone who gets in the way of that.

Huge W for reproductive rights in Arizona

But don’t let up. We must continue this fight all the way until November so we can enshrine abortions rights in the state constitution

Biden spent $4 trillion on infrastructure, climate change, and healthcare investments for the US and y’all didn’t say a word. Stop pretending to care.

Republicans are playing with fire by enacting the most restrictive abortion bans in states decided by 5 pts or less

The Atlanta metropolitan area over the past 12 years...
This is why I have a very hard time believing that a felon is going to reverse all of this

Just putting it out there that AZ-08 was Romney+24->Trump+19->Trump+13

Hamadeh won it by 11
Masters won it by only 6

They’re about to nominate the only possible candidate that could seriously lose AZ-08 which literally went *uncontested* by Dems in 2022.

If you woke up to this on November 6th, how would you react?

After every special election I look forward to the inevitable Nate Cohn tweet where he insists there's no persuasion and the results completely align with all of his priors.