Today at 8:10am ET. Tune in to Bloomberg Radio to hear Natasha Sarin talk with tom keene and Paul Sweeney about the One Big Beautiful Bill. youtube.com/watch?v=f39oHo…

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

The Budget Lab Full The Budget Lab report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state… 10/10

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10

Great to be with CNN this morning on The Budget Lab latest tariff analysis: 18%+ effective tariff rate, thousands of dollars of losses for consumers, massive uncertainty for businesses. youtube.com/watch?v=ywb1AF…

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

The Budget Lab Full The Budget Lab report here: budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state… Thank you Ana Swanson The New York Times for highlighting our work. nytimes.com/2025/07/14/us/… 10/10

One potential effect of a more politically-captive Fed is that they have even less influence over the long-end of the curve than normal: cuts to policy rates are offset in market pricing by rises in inflation compensation & term premia. So, less relief on mortgages & auto loans.

Great to be with Abby D. Phillip CNN NewsNight last night on the dangers of politicizing the Federal Reserve. Watch here: youtu.be/z86GA4OnRbw

“One of the biggest surprises so far has been the weakness of the $$. It was textbook: If you put in place tariffs, it’s going to put upward pressure," said Ernie Tedeschi. “That has major implications for the passing through of tariffs to prices.” politico.com/newsletters/mo…

“The 20.6% which is the highest since 1910 for the United States, that is an August 1st effective date,” Yale University director of economics Ernie Tedeschi says on a study about the United States tariff rate.

This week, Donald Trump's fight with Jerome Powell continued, with a White House official first telling Bloomberg News that the president was preparing to fire the Federal Reserve chairman, and then Trump quickly taking the threat back. Executive director of The Budget Lab at

Fully exempting home sales from tax would represent yet another inframarginal transfer to older, richer Americans. Something close to 90% of homeowners are already exempt. The only people paying tax are worth around $6M on average. Some new The Budget Lab calculations below:

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10

Listen to Ernie Tedeschi on NPR discuss the latest on tariffs with Steve Inskeep npr.org/2025/07/28/nx-…

New The Budget Lab analysis featured in POLITICO's Weekly Tax by Bernie Becker: "Yale’s Budget Lab has new research out today finding that most people will continue to benefit from the simplified tax system enacted in 2017. But provisions like “no tax on tips” likely will

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10

Quick new The Budget Lab post breaking down the distribution of the size of income tax cuts under the new tax law *above and beyond extension of existing 2025 law*. From this perspective, close to half of households will see a tax cut of less than $100.

New The Budget Lab tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10