#markets & #Fed are still not on same page - disconnect between investor expectations & forward guidance is making #interestrate #volatility break last year’s levels, it’s higher than March 2020, and now we’re entering realm of 2008 volatility. #buckleup #highvolatilityregime 🎢

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. reports first quarter 2023 net income of $1.7 billion or $3.98 diluted earnings per share. pnc.co/3KzY79v

Thrilled but not surprised to see that almost every former CEA Chair under Republican Presidents shares my enthusiasm for Jared Bernstein Archived as the next Chair of @WhiteHouseCEA. I expect the Senate to listen. nytimes.com/2023/04/14/us/…

April CPI rose 0.4% for both headline & core. The Y/Y rise ticked down to 4.9% and 5.5%,respectively. These increases were in line w market forecasts. Used car prices jumped 4.4%,gas prices rose 3% but food prices were flat in April as egg prices cracked & milk prices were spilt.

Gas prices rose 3% in April, adding 0.1% to the total rise of 0.4%. Thus far in May, gas prices are down 10 cents. This is very unusual since gas prices typically rise in May and peak close to Memorial Day. This penny/day drop in gas prices will keep inflation at bay in May.

Watch my interview tonight with ⁦Anderson Cooper 360°⁩ CNN discussing the consequences of default: It affects our standing as a serious country if people wonder if the US will pay its debts. It's not an experiment we want to do. youtube.com/watch?v=P9RxT1…

PNC's Affordable Lending Roadshow made a stop in Dallas last week.📍Visiting 33 cities in 2023, these day-long events offer prospective homebuyers the information, insights, and resources needed to succeed. #TeamPNC pnc.co/3MRtdMg

Not really all that surprising. Focusing on oil/energy prices is one key to direction and pace of inflation/disinflation. Currently, lower oil prices point toward continued slowing in headline inflation and some pass through to slower core inflation.

A very important part of slower inflation. And gas prices likely peaked for this year over the MD weekend. The May CPI will rise by 0.1% with core up 0.3 or 0.4%. Key reason for FOMC to “hop, skip or jump” over a rate hike at their June meeting.

Inflation followed M2 and monetary base growth up over the past three years, and now M2 and base growth are negative. Read more in this Economic Synopses ow.ly/NwVi50OA7Kh

"After the longest period in history without an increase, the federal minimum wage today is worth 29% less than 13 years ago–and 42% less than in 1968" via Peter Coy

Waiting to see cable TV correspondents standing in front of TV stations to report this, as they did when prices were rising in 2022.

May CPI up 0.1% and Y/Y declines sharply to 4%. Core CPI up 0.4% and Y/Y declines to 5.3%. Gas prices fell 5.6% and peaked for the year at $3.70/gallon in April. FOMC plays hopscotch and jumps over a rate hike at their June 14 meeting. #CPI

Used car prices jumped 4.4% & shelter prices jumped 0.6% in May. Both will show much lower hikes in the next three months and even declines in used car prices. This will drive much smaller gains in the core CPI in the months ahead. Welcome news for American consumers and the Fed.

STATEMENT from President Donald J. Trump on Jared Bernstein Archived's confirmation as CEA Chair: "I look forward to Jared Bernstein's continued leadership as we build an economy that works for working people."

I agree. June 2022 saw the headline CPI surge 1.1%, so even a 0.2-0.4% rise this month will bring the Y/Y rise down to near 3%. The July 2022 CPI was flat, so any rise next month will raise the Y/Y relative to June. The Y/Y rise in the core CPI will come down in June and July.

Fed Bank Pauses Rate Hikes in June?url=dallasexpress.com/?p=134879

Coming up in the noon hour on #Chicago's WBBM Newsradio, PNC Bank Chief economist Gus Faucher talks about the latest pulse on #housing and #unemployment claims. Stay in touch with the latest PNC insight on the #economy >> pnc.com/economicreports

Despite cuts from producers, #oil #prices have continue to sag. This has been helpful in the endeavor to contain #inflation.

Your periodic reminder that T-Bills are paying 5.5% without state taxes. This is the highest rate in over 20 years.