The experience with Mid East turmoil in the last wk with gold up (1st chart) on safe haven demand but Bitcoin down (2nd chart) highlights Bitcoin is not always a reliable safe haven alternative to gold. At times it reverts to being a high beta version of shares
(Bloomberg charts)

The Bureau of Meteorology’s Southern Oscillation Index may have left El Niño territory but note it can be volatile mth to mth. The second chart shows it as a quarterly average.

The latest El Niño (with less drought/more rain than feared) reminds that not El Nino’s are the same!

Eurozone shares -0.3% (-0.9% wk)
US shares -0.9%(-3% wk). Was +0.1% on no Israel/Iran escalation then down on worries ahead tech earnings(Nas -2.1%)
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.62%
Oil +0.5% to $83.1
Gold +0.5% to $2391.9
Iron ore -0.3% to $110.9
ASX futures +0.4%
$A 0.6415 w $US flat

China subway usage running above 2023 and 2019,
but traffic congestion still below 2019
New property transactions running below 2023 and 2019
Same for steel demand and production
(Goldman Sachs charts-

Weekly economic & market update - shares correcting; Iran/Israel risk; rate cut delays but inflation still falling ex US; supply boost helping cool Aust labour mkt; expect Aust Q1 CPI to slow to 3.4%yoy

amp.com.au/insights-hub/b…

Episode #118: How vulnerable are shares?

Join Diana Mousina and Shane Oliver this week on: Simplifying Investing Podcast Series

Full ep on:

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/62l5SK…

YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=Au0lAi…

Our Economic Activity Trackers for Europe and Australia fell sharply in the last week
That for China has had a bit of a bounce though.

Japanese inflation fell to 2.7%yoy in March from 2.8%
US style core inflation (ie ex food and energy) fell to 2.2% from 2.5%
(Goldman Sachs chart)

US Apr Phily Fed index rose to 15.5 pts. Avg of Phily Fed and Empire points to an uptick in manu & prices received in normal range.
Mar existing home sales -4.3%mom
Mar leading index -0.3%mom…back to -ve after Feb rise
Initial jobless claims flat and low
(ISI & Bloomberg charts)

Eurozone shares +0.5%
US shares -0.2%, initially +0.7% then down on hawkish Fed speak. Nasdaq -0.5%
US 10 yr yld +5bp to 4.63%
Oil +0.05% to 82.7
Gold +0.8% to $2379
Iron ore -0.1% to $110.75
ASX futures -0.7%
$A 0.642 with $US index +0.1%

Aust CoreLogic April mth to date home prices:
Syd +0.3% (+0.5% at mthly rate)
Mel -0.1%
Bri +0.5%
Ade +0.7%
Per +1.2% (+2% at mthly rate)
5 city avg +-0.4% (+0.6% at mthly rate)
Prices still rising but with big divergence between Perth & Adelaide versus Melbourne.

Something we have highlighted for a while now is the resilience of labour market conditions in Australia for those aged 25 and over. The jobless rate for 25+ year olds was just 2.7% in March - close to the low.

Unemployment and underutilisation are up from their lows indicating that the jobs market is cooling, but remain very low indicating it’s still tight.

Our Jobs Leading Indicator continues to point to softer jobs growth ahead but employment has so far remained surprisingly strong

Aust Mar emp -6.6k, <exp, but after Feb +117.6k
The mix of jobs was solid with full time +28k,hrs wkd up & unemp up <exp to 3.8%. Participation slowing could be an early sign of weakness but the jobs mkt remains tight & will leave the RBA cautious on inflation & in no rush to cut

UK March inflation fell further to 3.2%yoy from 3.4%yoy, with core and services inflation also down. However, the falls were less than expected and services inflation remains too high leaving rate cuts unlikely til Aug/Sep
(Bloomberg chart)

Eurozone shares -0.1%
US shares -0.6% after starting up 0.5%, Nasdaq -1.15%
US 10 yr yld -8bp to 4.59%
Oil -3.1% to $82.7
Gold -0.9% to $2361
Iron ore +2.4% to $110.85
ASX futures +0.3%
$A 0.6434 with $US index -0.4%

This chart showing hhold debt servicing ratios (from IMF, reproduced in AFR) highlights why Aust econ is very different to US re interest rates. It reflects a combo of much higher debt to income (from more expensive houses) & a much higher rise in actual mort rates in Aust v US

NZ Q1 inflation fell in line with exp: CPI +0.6%q/+4%y from 4.7%

Tradable & goods inflation down but non-tradeables & services remain a problem (but mostly due to volatile & govt related items)

Core measures still trending down & just below top of target
(Goldman Sachs charts)

IMF again revised up is global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2% (same as 2023 turned out to be) driven by faster grth in the US.
Its 2025 forecast was unchanged at 3.2%.
3.2% global grth was around normal in the pre-covid period, altho the IMF usually started off more optimistic.

Canada Mar CPI 2.9%yoy,up from 2.8%yoy as exp
But core median fell more than exp to 2.8%yoy, and core trim fell more than exp to 3.1%
Keeps BoC on track for Jun cut
Gov Macklem said “we dont have to do what the Fed does..we do what Can needs” =>relevance for RBA!
Bloomberg charts