Thinking about the prospect of nuclear war in terms of personal risk might sound callous, but getting to grips with probabilities might help us make better decisions about our own lives. Via @WIREDUK wired.trib.al/5abjfBJ

😉 McKinsey & Company

An analysis of monkeypox from our own Jared Leibovich for the newly launched Asterisk!

We're creating a database for base rates! forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwv… The idea is to collect base rates for different categories of events and makes them available to researchers, forecasters and philanthropic organisations. 1/

Samotsvety (Samotsvety Forecasting) has updated its AGI timelines. The median forecaster now believes AGI has a 50% chance of arriving by 2041, and a 31% chance of arriving by 2030. forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ByBBqwRX…

Yep, also posted on our blog here: <samotsvety.org/blog/2023/01/2…>

"Is that a low disagreeableness reply, or do you actually agree. If so, how so?" — Nuño Sempere (Asunción)

The next pandemic is coming. How can we predict what it will be? Or when it might come? Juan forecasts the next Covid-level outbreak in Issue 02. asteriskmag.com/issues/2/what-…

Our excellent Molly Hickman is one of the mentors!

Jonathan Mann writes about the future of the tech job market for Asterisk asteriskmag.com/issues/03/ai-i…

Samotsvety forecasters did not fact-check this.

I find this hillarious. Personally I'm a fan of Samotsvety remaining a "there is this group with a vaguely Russian name. and they are good at predicting stuff, I promise, they're not scammers", but it looks like I'm going to get outvoted.

Important work by Tolga Bilge and forecasters on the chance of AI catastrophe and how we can avoid it

Nice article by Dylan Matthews in Vox on Samotsvety Forecasting, one of the groups I forecast with.

Very nice piece about our forecasting team Samotsvety Forecasting from Dylan Matthews at Vox.

Has been a fun ride with an awesome group of people. Looking forward to the coming years and appreciate Dylan’s work on the article.

Thread with some highlights from Sentinel's global risks weekly roundup 🧵

I’ve been excited to see all the discussion of AI 2027, positive and negative. Here I'll respond to some themes of the criticisms we've gotten (this is all my opinion, not the team’s): (1) It’s just speculative sci-fi (2) 2027 is too soon (3) We’re pushing the doomer agenda 🧵