#CivilWarMovie

Russia's war in Ukraine has entered its third year and is seemingly no closer to a resolution. In a live event, Mick Ryan, AM, Zoya Sheftalovich and Sam Roggeveen will discuss how the war is evolving.
Register now: lowyinstitute.org/event/russia-u…

My thoughts on 'Civil War': lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

I had mixed feelings about 'Civil War': lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Xi Jinping is a more of a gray-zone guy than a gambler. That matters for Taiwan.
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Europeans aren't poor. They are illiquid. Much of Europe's wealth is stored in safe streets, nice parks, public transit, 'free' healthcare, etc. which, it turns out, are too socially expensive for Americans to maintain. Americans take the money instead. The rest is only natural.

Was hoping someone might dig this up!

My latest, co-written w/ Tristan Anderson Volpe, in TWQ: We examine the magnitude of South Korea’s nuclear latency and leverage over the United States, and offer recommendations for how the US should think about managing allied proliferation risks twq.elliott.gwu.edu/files/2024/04/…

I consider Rep. Gallagher Press Office and Matt Pottinger to be good friends. Each has a distinguished record of service to the country, above all on China. I agree with them about a great deal.

But I fundamentally disagree with their core argument here.

Why? 1/

foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

Official and unofficial US-Iran back channel diplomacy since the Damascus strike on April 1 helped to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.

Consistent messaging across multiple channels clarified each side’s thinking, spelling out intentions and redlines. 1/

This is by far one of the most profound and important questions facing the West in the next few decades.

Speaking is Hubert Védrine, France's former Foreign Minister and Secretary-General of the French presidency under president Mitterrand.

He says the West, 'descendants of…

One of my big takeaways from my latest #Ukraine visit is the need to change strategy. Current war strategy is focussed on 'defending Ukraine'. This is now a strategy for defeat and must evolve. 1/10 🧵🇺🇦
lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Recommended, by Mick Ryan, AM. Particularly liked the point about tactical vs strategic innovation: lowyinstitute.org/the-interprete…

Yeah but did his words bring the Speaker to tears?

One missing piece from Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦's column is motive: why would the US go to war with China? noahpinion.blog/p/americans-ar… tylercowen

'The world's eyes were focused on Australia...Australia gained a prominent international status...' I think that's right, and I suspect some of our politicians enjoyed the attention a bit too much.

Plane flying through totality in Arkansas! What a picture from Kendall Rust. #arwx

Could all the economists who follow me please explain how I'm supposed to process this story. I don't know how to feel.

The Thawley Scholarship offers an Australian scholar a unique opportunity to work at the The Lowy Institute in Sydney and CSIS in Washington, DC. Applications are open now.
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