Many thanks to LSE USAPP blog for the opportunity to discuss Iowa in the context of the presidential election this week.

If you’re looking for expertise on the Electoral College—and I think we’ll all be needing that in the coming days/weeks/months—better make sure you’re following Robert Alexander.

Who’s winning the 2024 ground game? Data collected by Sean Whyard and I shows Kamala Harris is dominating the ground game in PA, MI and GA. For more on the placement and effects of offices, our new book Storefront Campaining will be out later this month! cambridge.org/core/elements/…

Happy Election Day! (Baby Harrison’s first)

I counted the yard signs in my neighborhood, and "ADT Home Security" is going to win in a landslide.

But Josh Shapiro!!

2024 polling error in historical context (for key states): 1. Much better in most of Midwest + NC vs. 16/20. 2. IA big exception. Along w/FL + TX, worst polling misses over last 2 decades. 3. Same direction of error for ~every state for 3rd straight year--this is not normal.

Staggering class realignment/shift in working class Harris lost DESPITE major shift of affluent voters her way 2020: Trump wins voters over $100K, 54-52 2024: *Harris* wins voters over $100K, 54-45 2020: Biden wins voters $50K-$100K, 57-42 2024: *Trump* w/ voters $50K-$100K,

If your take on the election starts with the VP pick anywhere in the top 3, you weren’t paying attention last night.

My initial take on Trump's win: goodauthority.org/news/where-to-… His gains were widespread, so explanations should start with the broadest factors -- not with bespoke stories about states, cities, counties, and groups. The simplest explanation: party of unpopular incumbent loses. 1/2

I cannot say this enough: - Early exits are not suitable for demographic analysis or comparisons. - AP/Votecast is still preliminary -- should be adjusted for final vote counts. - We don't have Catalist. Or Pew validated voters. It's just too early to have confident takes!

“... if someone is looking for someone or something to blame for Kamala Harris’ loss, I don’t think Tim Walz is the right person to focus on.” Christopher Devine tells The Minnesota Star Tribune startribune.com/whats-next-for… #Election2024

Vance could be a more influential VP than Pence, who handled some high-profile tasks but ultimately didn't hold sway with Trump, Christopher Devine told Columbus Dispatch dispatch.com/story/news/pol…

Latest numbers: across the seven battleground states, the '20-'24 swing towards Trump was ~3.1 pts. Across the other 43 states (+DC), it was ~6.7 pts. Bottom line: the Harris campaign swam impressively against some very strong underlying currents.

People always doubt the future viability of parties that lose big elections. But then the pressure goes on the new party in power, voters sour on them, and the circle of life continues.

A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait. There's reason to be skeptical toward early campaign-based explanations for Harris' loss. And the issues that might propel a Dem comeback are likely unknown until Trump starts governing. semafor.com/article/11/08/…

.Dan Mallinson and I have the opportunity to talk about our book with NB Political Science New Books Network (@newbooksnetwork.bsky.social) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dan…

Showing off my copy of Where East Meets (Mid)West. I had a great time writing with Christopher Devine and working with Jon Lauck and Kent State U Press

Excited to announce the formal release of our second collection of essays on politics in the postwar Midwest. It was a dream of mine to put essays in conversation with each other across two volumes. Thx to my co editor Jon Lauck, our amazing contributors, and @kansas_press!