Imagine that you are a university president. Protestors vow to commit criminal offenses, ranging from trespass to disruptions and occupations, unless you agree to meet with them to discuss their 'demands.' What would you do? I would not meet with them under these conditions. I

There should be less 'macro messaging' in general, especially where it is laughably fictitious. That others misbehave more doesn't change that. A more softly-spoken message of prudent restraint & commitment to stability where possible would be better, esp if practised.

The rhetoric of RBIO helped to frustrate a badly-needed, hard-nosed reckoning with America's priorities & commitments, allied burden-sharing, etc. It's not the double standard-agree- but the moralistic, ahistorical, surreal take on foreign policy that damages judgement.

I totally agree with ⁦Gideon Rachman⁩ that we should dump the limp, lame, and hypocritical concept of the “rules-based International order.”

And, actually, that the old-fashioned “free world” may be the best description of our side. 1/ on.ft.com/3KkI002

Victor Gobarev was a Soviet army officer. Just another day dealing with this vile, lightly informed electronic mob.

Also there's realist work over the past decade on pre-modern balancing and power politics.

Egyptian blue is the oldest known artificial pigment. The color blue throughout human history has been one of the most cited, identifying it with royalty and divinity, due to its difficulty in obtaining it.

Blue pigments have been used since ancient times, but later than other

There's a lot of attention to empire in IR. Eg Robert Gilpin's work 'War and Change' attends closely to hierarchy & different kinds of 'conflict group.'

“Too scared to leave, too scared to coerce partners, the superpower loiters like a pitiful giant, its aid, diplomatic support and arms earning it complicity with little influence.”

⁦Patrick Porter⁩, last December engelsbergideas.com/notebook/7-oct…

Mocked partly because its sudden, ill-conceived adoption by a beleagured government suggests it is hollow, as you say. Its done as a considered policy -not just election meat -in nth European countries. At very least there are large costs & tradeoffs to reckon with.

Yes- a key point. The transaction costs of shifting to a nat service model would be high. Money & time & focus needed more immediately for actual, depleted armed forces now.

...and to get to the place where the military and society develops the hard infrastructure, political consensus & sociology conducive to such a change would be massive, & make it harder to focus on immediate needs of professional armed forces as they are today.

Totally proportionate analogy, really well thought out.

I'd settle at first instance for a few properly supported brigades, robust air defences and properly crewed surface fleet, before trying to build the mass organisation & social upheaval of national service.

That is indeed impressive evidence on public sentiment, which must exert *some* constraining effect. Point taken. Yet the regime grows ever more hostile to Taiwan. It may bank on opinion rallying around the flag in an actual crisis. I wouldn't bet they are wrong.

A blockade or an invasion of Taiwan may not trigger that much real, substantive international opposition. The 'Rest' hedged & mostly muted their response to smaller, weaker Russia's invasion of Ukraine. & Europe may not try economic warfare against Russia & China at same time.

Does arming Ukraine - a policy defensible on other grounds- really deter China? Rehearsing aggression against Taiwan, Beijing isn't behaving as though it does.

Spring issue International Security sneak preview!

ProfTalmadge, L. Michelini, & Vipin Narang ➡️ assess nuclear no-first-use pledges
J. Schwartz ➡️ questions nuclear taboo
Şener Aktürk ➡️ explains ethnoreligious cleansing in Europe
Daniel Byman ➡️ guide for writing policy recommendations

You know I love transparency and I’m not a fan of unknown “instagrammable”spots.
Here it is: 📍Capri, Italy 🇮🇹
Hotel Punta Tragara - Art Suite (65 sqm + rooftop) between 5k and 8k euros per night if available.

Enjoy your wish with Aladdin's lamp! 🧞‍♀️💫

Plenty of cheering from the sidelines for the US to bring about World War III.

Russia seeing Ukraine strike the early-warning radars it would need to see a nuclear strike coming is unhelpful. The NATO Sec-Gen is cheering it on. Jake Sullivan needs to give him a call.